Page 20 - IRANRptFeb20

5.1.1 ​current account dynamics
Iran current account, USD mn
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Balance of payments overall
-947
21,436
12,213
13,189
8,561
2,233
Current account balance
27,554
58,507
23,362
25,105
15,861
1,237
16,388
15,816
Current account balance: % of GDP
5.66
10.08
3.87
5.43
3.12
0.32
3.92
Total Exports
130,500
95,500
82,000
88,800
63,000
Total Imports
62,661
59,999
51,914
48,138
52,007
40,097
41,945
54,459
Trade Balance
68,692
42,049
32,291
35,231
20,5000
Source: CEIC, Central Bank of Iran
Iran running a current account surplus and has over $100bn of gross official reserves, says IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated in March that the government held $112bn of foreign assets and reserves. It also indicated that Iran was running a current account surplus.​ The figures imply that Iran might withstand the sanctions without an external payments crisis.
But the IMF also noted that Tehran was having difficulty accessing some of its reserves as its relations with foreign banks were constrained by the threat of US sanctions. Meanwhile, sanctions could cut the current account surplus sharply given the severe disruption they are causing to trade.
The IMF estimated in its World Economic Outlook released last October that Iran’s current account surplus would see a decline from 2.2% of GDP in 2017 to 1.3% in 2018 and 0.3% in 2019.
5.1.2 ​Import/export dynamics
Trade between Iran and Turkey recorded by TUIK as slumping 40% in 2019
Trade between Iran and Turkey fell 40.09% y/y last year to $5.58bn, according to Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) data.
US sanctions aimed at preventing Iranian crude oil, gas and petrochemical sales worldwide may have taken a substantial toll on trade between the Islamic Republic and neighbouring Turkey, the Middle East’s largest economy.
The TUIK said Iran exported $3.27bn worth of goods to Turkey in 2019, marking a 52.81% y/y decline. Turkey, meanwhile, last year exported goods valued at $2.31bn to Iran, equating to a 3.22% y/y fall.
Turkish exports to Iran include nearly finished items including fabrics, plastics and industrial machinery.
Iran in 2019 was Turkey’s 19th biggest market for exports and ranked 14th on the list for countries from which the Turks sourced imports.
5.1.3​ Gross international reserves
Iran’s gold Imami sovereign breaks IRR25mn barrier amid dwindling hard currency supplies
Iran’s gold sovereign of choice, the Imami, has again broken the IRR25mn barrier as buyers continue to purchase remaining stocks of the officially minted 18-carat coin, IBENA reported on June 18.
Iranians’ attraction to gold as a safe haven has intensified with hard currency supplies dwindling in Iran following legal changes suddenly brought in in early April to arrest the stark descent of the Iranian rial (IRR), hit by souring sentiment over Iran’s economic prospects in the face of hostility from the US
20​ IRAN Country Report​ February 2020 www.intellinews.com