Page 11 - AsiaElec Week 13

AsiaElec RENEWABLES AsiaElec
Renewables growth set to be lost in 2020
GLOBAL
THE previously ambitious growth forecasts for solar and wind for 2020 now face being wiped out by the coronavirus’ (COVID-19) devastating impact on global power demand.
a surging US dollar could now put growth at zero for 2020 and even reduce additions by 10% in 2021.
Analysis from Rystad Energy found that green projects in Australia, Brazil, Mexico and South Africa faced the deepest impact, as capital costs could rise by up to 36% as local currencies fall.
“The foreign exchange impact will decimate the 2021 outlook for solar installations and the outlook from 2022 and beyond for wind installa- tions, as orders for new equipment will halt from currency-hit emerging countries, which would otherwise account for much of this growth,“ said Rystad Energy’s product manager for renewa- bles, Gero Farruggio.
In detail, Rystad said that 140GW of solar and 75GW of wind could be added in 2020; however, the impact of COVID-19, not only on power demand but also movement restrictions that will hold back construction timetables, would mean growth would fall back to 2019 levels of 126GW for solar and 71GW for wind.
Further ahead, Rystad predicted that a fall in FIDs and the strengthening US dollar would reduce project commissioning by 20GW, or 10% down on 2020.
China had predicted it would add 40GW of
solar capacity in 2020, and Rystad noted that despite an initial fall because of COVID-19, fac- tories had returned to work quickly, and com- ponent deliveries have been affected less than thought.
Indeed, China and the US are forecast to be least affected by exchange fluctuations, although Beijing is unlikely to meet its 40GW target.
“Countries most impacted in this sector will be from emerging markets in Asia, the Middle East, India and Latin America, where the bulk of solar growth had previously been expected,“ says Farruggio.
Europe’s 20GW of forecast additions in 2020 will be mainly be under threat from travel restrictions, which have halted many projects under construction.
Solar in India is anticipated to be affected, as it is reliant on imports from China, putting its 5.8GW of new capacity at risk.
On the other hand, its 1.7GW of new wind could be safer, as the country is more self-suf- ficient in terms of turbine production than for solar PV panels, Rystad said.
Australia could meet its 2GW solar target, as most projects are well advanced, although this would depend on grid connections. Its 1.8GW target for 2021 is more at risk.
The country’s 4.5GW of wind turbine capac- ity that is committed is still expected to come
online between 2020 and
2021. ™
CONSUMPTION
India’s March electricity
usage falls 9.2% as
lockdown bites
India’s electricity use fell 9.2% in March, provisional government data showed on April1, Reuters reported, as consumption dropped for the first time in three months due to a nationwide lockdown to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.
Consumers used 100.2bn kWh in March, compared with 110.33bn kWh a year earlier, an analysis of load despatch data by state- run Power System Operation Corp Ltd (POSOCO) showed.
NEWS IN BRIEF
TARIFFS SP Group will also defer increasing its Singapore tariffs to fall network cost to transport electricity through the power grid for a year, reducing electricity
tariffs for households by 2.5%.
Electricity and gas prices for the next three It said the deferment was in support of the months are set to fall, with SP Group and City Government’s Resilience budget. SP Group is
Gas explaining that this is due to lower energy a Temasek-linked company.
or non-fuel costs, the Straits Times reported. City Gas also said on the same day that
On March 31, SP Group said electricity the gas tariff for households before GST will tariffs before the goods and services tax (GST) decrease by 0.12 cents per kwh, from 17.23 will decrease by an average of 5.1%, or 1.22 cents per kwh to 17.11 cents per kwh. Singapore cents per kilowatt hour (kwh), from This works out to be a 0.7% dip in prices, April 1. after a 4.22% drop in the first three months of
For households, the electricity tariff before the year and a 5.81% fall in the last quarter of GST will decrease from 24.24 cents per kwh to 2019.
23.02 cents per kwh, meaning that the average The Energy Market Authority, which monthly electricity bill for a family living in a regulates both industries, has approved the four-room Housing Board flat will decrease revised tariffs.
by S$3.89.
Week 13 01•April•2020 w w w . N E W S B A S E . c o m
P11