Page 14 - 2020 GSABA Housing Forecast Magazine

San Antonio
Regional Economy Update
National Overview/Interest Rates
Fed Members Interest Rate Targets – Little Change
Source: Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg, TXP
National Overview/Energy
Oil Prices are Projected to Remain in $60/barrel Range
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National Outlook
• While the National Economy continues to grow, the pace is slowing (after 10-year expansion run)
• GDP has fallen into 2.0 percent range
• All policy options have been exercised to provide
stimulation
• Low interest rates
• Tax cuts/deficit spending
• Issues on the Horizon
• Potentially rising interest rates, ballooning deficits, trade
tensions, political uncertainty (domestic and global) • Expectation of continued slow growth in 2020
Regional Economy
• Regional Economy is Expanding
• Growth in most indicators bounced up in 2019
• Population grew by about 43,750 from 2017 to 2018
• 18,900 net new jobs in the metro area this year
• The overall economy grew at an estimated rate of 3.5
percent (inflation-adjusted)
• Retail sales (as measured by sales tax rebates) climbed
4.0 percent for the City; comparable figure for the region
• Travel spending in the City rose 8.0 percent from 2017 to
2018
• Number of permitted units in the MSA expected to be
up about 10 percent this year; home sales ahead a little over 5 percent.
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Trends: Population
Annual Net Population Growth in San Antonio MSA by Category
Source: Census, TXP
Trends: Employment
Annual Growth in Private vs. Public Sectors in the San Antonio MSA
Source: BLS, TXP
14 2020 HOUSING FORECAST
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