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Builder Confidence Drops One Point in December
by National Association of Home Builders
DECEMBER 15, 2014 - Following a four-point uptick last month, builder confidence in the market for new-
ly built single-family homes fell one point in December to a level of 57 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), released today. “Mem- bers in many markets across the country have seen their businesses improve over the course of the year, and we expect builders to remain con- fident in 2015,” said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a home builder and de- veloper from Wilmington, Del. “After a sluggish start to 2014, the HMI has stabilized in the mid-to-high 50s index level trend for the past six months, which is consistent with our assess- ment that we are in a slow march back to normal,” said NAHB Chief Econo- mist David Crowe. “As we head into 2015, the housing market should con- tinue to recover at a steady, gradual pace.” Derived from a monthly sur- vey that NAHB has been conducting for 30 years, the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks build- ers to rate traffic of prospective buy-
ers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. Two of the three HMI compo- nents posted slight losses in Decem- ber. The index gauging current sales conditions fell one point to 61, while the index measuring expectations for future sales dropped a single point
to 65 and the index gauging traffic
of prospective buyers held steady at 45. Looking at the three-month mov- ing averages for regional HMI scores, the West rose by four points to 62 and the Northeast edged up one point to 45, while the Midwest registered a three-point loss to 54 and the South dropped two points to 60. Editor’s Note: The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index is strictly the product of NAHB Economics, and is not seen or influenced by any outside party prior to being released to the public.
HMI tables can be found at nahb.org/ hmi. More information on housing statistics is also available at housingeconomics.com.
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