Page 30 - BREXIT 2
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The Worshipful Company of Farmers The Worshipful Company of Farmers They have yet to to bear the the withdrawal bill49 and further costs of customs arrangements at ports An unquantifiable cost has been paid in in in the the form of postponed or or cancelled inward investments due to the the political turmoil of o the the four-year exit process but this is is offset by some inward investment resulting from the the Brexit decision For the the the land-based sectors two tangible impacts to to to date have been the the the end end to to to the the the quarter century trend of rising agricultural land prices (see below) and and a a a a a a a jolt to the dependence on EU labour in in agriculture food processing and and hospitality For the the the most part the the the uncertainties and and questions raised in in in the the the 2016 WCF report on on implications of Brexit remain We now now know broadly how the support to farming will be transformed in fin in the the next seven years We do not know the the details nor how much public financial support will remain It seems likely it will will be be less (after 2024) and what remains will will mostly have to be be justified as payment for public environmental services We do not yet know the extent of potential new income streams coming into rural businesses for carbon and biodiversity management We know there are are ambitions to raise animal welfare and and environmental standards Farmers have had four years to contemplate how they will adapt their farming business and other enterprises as as CAP payments are phased down and out Maybe it it will take the the reality of the the first cuts in 2021 to shake those who have not yet planned for this eventuality There will be additional friction compared to now in trade trade with with our nearest and and largest trading partner the the the EU EU but the the the longer run terms of trade trade with with the the the EU EU and and with major competitors further afield remain to to be discovered Just as in in 2016 the the possibilities range from little detectable effect on agricultural agricultural markets to to a a a a a a a a a significant opening of the market market to to agricultural agricultural exporters
who have clear price advantage over over the the UK production Whichever is is the the case relying on on discovering
domestic laws which bar the the imports of produce produce not produced under identical regulatory standards in the the UK is a a pipe dream 49 The final bill the the ‘Financial Settlement’ agreed fin in in in the the Withdrawal Agreement is is estimated to be £33b most of which is is paid fin in in in 2020-2023 but because as it will will be be paid paid over the the the period to 2064(!) the the the final amount paid paid will will depend on changes fin in the the the exchange rate https://commonslibrary parliament uk/research-briefings/cbp-8039/
This assessment refers to to the the market market impacts of potential trade deals and does not purport to to make any predictions about other market market developments e e e e e e e e e e e e g g conditioned by the the Covid19 pandemic or or other large and and extraordinary disturbances to markets 28

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