Page 7 - BREXIT 2
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The Worshipful Company of Farmers The Worshipful Company of Farmers Table 1 Key messages in WCF Brexit 1 1 A referendum to remain or or leave the European Union will take place before 31/12/17 and is most likely between June 2016 and April 2017 The policies which will will follow Brexit will will not be clear by the the time of the the referendum only general indications 2 Following a a a a a a a a ‘leave’ vote there will be a a a a a a a a two-year negotiation period of intense debate on
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Britain’s trading relationship with the the the the the EU and and the the the the the rest of the the the the the world and and on
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the the the the the British Agricultural Policy (BAP) to replace the the the the the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) 3 The EU EU trade question is fundamentally a a a a a a a choice between remaining close to the the EU EU single market and therefore having to to retain most EU existing regulation regulation or or leaving the single market in in in in in in order to to allow some deregulation 4
Whichever outcome there will be more customs controls and thus higher trading costs than now on
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trade with the the the EU (both ways) These could depress UK UK farm prices and raise some consumer costs If the the the UK UK then chooses lower protection levels on
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agriculture with the the rest of the the world this would also depress some UK farmer prices but reduce consumer consumer costs Therefore together farmers might face weaker prices prices whilst consumer consumer food prices prices on
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balance may not be much affected 5 UK domestic agricultural support will not be be higher than now under the CAP and could well be be lower It is likely that a a a a a UK government will continue with with some direct payments to farmers – but for how long with with what conditions is is unknown Aspects of rural development policy policy are also likely to continue UK policy policy could be less risk averse and more positive with respect to agricultural technology The details of these policies will diverge between England Scotland Wales and and and Northern Ireland 6 These uncertainties starting from depressed prices in in in in in 2016 will reduce confidence and investment in in in in in agriculture andprobablyreducerents landpricesandlendingtoagriculture unlessanduntilclarityemergesonthenewBritish Agricultural policy 7 Direct payments are decoupled from production production so agricultural production production effects of any cuts will be small production changes may arise if third country trade is is opened 8
The effects of these changes will cause some disruption and hardship in the the short run Farms most vulnerable are those dependent on
current payments for example the grazing livestock sector and farms which are heavily borrowed 9
However markets for all inputs and and and services to to farming will adjust to to these shocks and and and processors and and and retailers will will be concerned to to ensure continuity of supplies Farmers themselves will will adjust there is much scope to to improve UK agricultural productivity which has slipped compared to other EU countries There could be a a a a a a a catalytic effect of Brexit with beneficial long run effects for the sector as a a a whole 10
Fromacountrysideandenvironmentalperspectivetherearestrongdownsiderisksassociatedwiththesepotential developments MuchthereforedependsonhowtheopportunitytodesignanewBritishruralpolicybettertunedto UK needs is grasped 11
This author expects the the the the status quo will will prevail and the the the the UK will will remain in in the the the the EU However the the the the referendum debate willexpose yetagain thatcurrentCAPisnotwelltunedtosupportenvironmentallysustainableandviablefarming The so-called ‘reformed EU’ will still have an insufficiently reformed reformed agricultural policy 5 In view of of of of this continuing uncertainty the the the the Worshipful Company of of of of Farmers decided to to to engage once again into the the the the business of of of of of peering ahead to to to see what can be said about the the the the the the implications of of of of of these dramatic developments for British food agriculture and and rural land use This is is is the the the the aim of of of the the the the current report (WCF Brexit 2) The structure of the the the the the the report is is as follows Section Section 2 summarises the the the the the the progress in fin in in defining the the the the the the post-Brexit policy framework for food food agriculture and and and and and and the the the the the the the environment and and and and and and the the the the the the the trading and and and and and and regulatory set-up Section Section 3 then reviews five five contributions to to the the the the the grand debates on
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our food food system and and and and and and land use which have been taking place over the last five five years 












































































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