Page 11 - Parliament Budget Office Annual Report 2022-2023

National sphere of government: Social protection
South Africans are experiencing a heightened cost-of-living crisis. A large proportion of the South African population is subject to debilitating poverty and unemployment, regarding which institutional support remains inadequate. According to the Stats SA General Household Survey, the percentage of households that had limited access to food increased from 17.8 per cent in 2019 to 20.9 per cent in 2021. The percentage of persons with more limited access to food then increased from 19.5 per cent in 2019 to 23.8 per cent in 2021. Meanwhile, vulnerability to poverty in South Africa is gendered, racial and geographic. In 2022, President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighted that “African women are the face of poverty”. According to Stats SA, the profile of a subjectively-poor household in South Africa in 2021 is typically one which includes the following characteristics:
u headed by a black African female who is younger than 35; u resides in a rural area that is located in a rural-based
province and has lower levels of education;
u in these households, it is more likely that all economically active individuals (age 15 years and above) are unemployed, while on the income distribution these households are located in the lower quintiles.
The extensions to the COVID-19 SRD grant have provided a lifeline to millions of South Africans. As of December 2022, the Department of Social Development (DSD) had spent 48.2 per cent of the 2022 Budget. The new eligibility criteria for qualifying for the grant have led to the exclusion of millions of needy people who fall below the upper-bound poverty line. In the 2022 MTBPS, DSD declared a total R1.8 billion of unspent funds and projected underspending. A further R3.7 billion was shifted away from DSD, while more than R9 billion of the estimated expenditure was not spent in 2022/23.
We have shown in our analysis that the average Household Food Basket falls below the minimum wage (R4 917,40,44 a month). Moreover, an average of one waged worker in a household of 4.4 individuals within that household falls below the upper-bound poverty line (R1, 335).
We made committee members aware that grants have had a significant impact on poverty and hunger in South Africa. A study by Bhorat and Kohler (2021) on the fiscal incidence of the COVID-19 SRD grant suggests that the grant reduced poverty by 5.3% amongst the poorest households. In 2020, household income inequality remained at 1.3-6.3% depending on the measure. Hence, although it doesn’t reach the food poverty line (R663.00), the SRD grant has made a significant impact on household consumption.
Justice and Protection Services
We cautioned MPs of the worrying increases in crime reported in the crime statistics. On average, crime increased by 9.55 per cent (year-on-year) between December 2021 and December 2022. In 2022/23, the biggest increases within the crime category were incidents of attempted murder (24.3%), shoplifting (23.3%) and common robbery (21.2%). Police Minister Bheki Cele had previously expressed concern about the high levels of gender-based violence in the country. Budget 2023 has thus proposed an increase in the police budget of R7.8 billion to make provision for 5,000 additional police trainees annually over the next 3 years. However, the 2023 Budget proposals have stayed silent on funding to implement the National Strategic Plan on GBVF (NSP on GBVF).
Provincial sphere of government: Education
Socio-economic indicators remain a significant determinant of educational attainment in South Africa. Children from poorer households are more likely to stay at home with parents or guardians than to attend Earlier Child Development (ECD) centres. According to Stats SA, the number of children aged 0-4 years’ old who have attended Grade R and preschool fell from 36.8 per cent in 2019 to 28.5 per cent in 2021.
The quality of education thus remains a significant challenge. New data published by Oxford University Press on early grade reading in South Africa reports that fewer than 50 per cent of Grade 1 children had learnt the letters of the alphabet by the end of Grade 1. Furthermore, a Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) estimates that the number of Grade 4 children who cannot read for meaning is predicted to increase from 78 per cent pre-pandemic (2016) to an estimated 82 per cent in 2021 (final results to be published in May 2023).
Massive gains have been made in the number of people accessing basic education since 1994. Stats SA data shows that the percentage of individuals aged 5 years and older who attended schools but did not pay tuition fees significantly increased from 0.4 per cent in 2001 to 70.2 per cent in 2022. Although the percentage of individuals attending non-fee- paying schools has increased, socioeconomic background remains a significant determinant of educational attainment. According to Stats SA, the percentage of individuals aged 18-24 who were still attending secondary school in 2021 was higher for households in poorer income groups than for households in higher income groups. Today, approximately 22.5 per cent of females and 15.5 per cent of males between the ages of 7-18 state that they do not attend an educational institution because they cannot afford the fees. The youths aged 18-24 coming from the highest income households were then more likely to attend university than those from lower quintile groups.
PARLIAMENTARY BUDEGT OFFICE ANNUAL REPORT FOR THE 2022/2023 FINANCIAL YEAR
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