Page 105 - Strategy Presentation

Conclusion
Curentpupilsarefocusedwithintwohoursoftheschool,with90%withinthreehours.Younger pupilsliveslightlyclosertotheschoolthanolderpupils,with64%ofSeniorslivingwithinanhour comparedto55%ofSixthFormers.However,whencomparingpupilsin2017,65%ofalpupilslived withinanhourcomparedto55%ofalpupilsin2019.Thisincreaseintraveltimesappearsto coincidewithanincreaseintherecruitmentofthetwomostafluentlifestylegroups,SuperStreets andHighRoads,withacommensuratereductioninAspirationalAreas–familiesmakingsacrifices topayfees.
WithtwohoursoftheColege,weestimatethereare2,985childrenaged13-15whowouldbe expectedtoboardatanindependentschool.ThelargestmarketsarearoundOxford,Bristoland Cardif,althoughruralareasaroundWorcesterandStratford-upon-Avonalsoshow pocketsof potential.Youcurentlyrecruit177pupilsfrom withinthismarket,suggestingashareof5.9%.Your highestshareisinthemarketsaroundtheschoolandtothewest,withaminimalshareofthe largestmarkets.Thismarketisprojectedtoincreaseby12%to2024,withtotalgrowthof10%to 2029.
Focusingonthe16-17yearoldmarketshowsanestimatedsizeof2,107youngadultswhowould beexpectedtoboardatanindependentboardingschool.Theareasofthehighestpotentialare muchthesameasforyoungerpupils.Youcurentlyrecruit130pupilsfrom withinthiscatchment area,suggestingashareof6.2%.Inthismarketyouappeartohaveabetersharefrom areastothe eastandsouthofthecatchmentinslightlylargermarkets.Thismarketisexpectedtogrow by12% to2024withtotalgrowthof16%to2029.
Boardingschoolcompetitorswithinanhourhavegeneralygrownsince2010,withnumbersoveral growingby9.7%.However,numbersofboardershavenotbeenaspositive,withtotalgrowthofjust 2%from 2010-2018.Numbersofseniorpupilshavegrownpositivelyinmostschools,withtotalgrowth of12%,althoughSixthForm numbershavenotfolowedsuit,contractingby-1.4%. Numbersofboardersinfeederprepschoolshavebeensimilarlydepresed,withnumbersfrom, 2010-2018decliningby-16%.However,someschoolshavebuckedthistrend,notablyBruernAbbey.
TodetailtheWestLondonmarketweuseda1hourcatchmentareaaroundHilingdonRailStation. Withinthisareasweestimatethereare24,500youngadultsaged13-17whowouldbeexpectedto boardinanindependentschool.ThekeyareasarearoundSlough,Edgware,Harow andStAlbans. Youdocurentlyhaveaminorshareofthismarket,with35pupilscurentpupilslivinginthisarea. The population projectionssuggestitw il lgrow significantly overthe period,w ith grow th of17% to 2024,growingby20%to2029. Boardingpreparatoryschoolsinthismarkethavehadsimilarexperiencestothoseinthewest,with totalcontractionof-12%.However,schoolssuchasSunningdaleandHandcrosParkappeartobe buckingthistrend.
Thisreportidentifiessomeclearareaswheretherearelargemarketsfrom whichtheschoolis curentlynotrecruiting.Afocusontheseshouldyieldsomelow hangingfruit.However,numbersof boardersw ithin traditionalsourcesare contracting,suggesting a greatnum berofnew boardersw il l potentialybenew totheconcept.