Page 9 - Penn State Civil and Environmental Engineering: Annual Report

FACULTY RESEARCH FACULTY RESEARCH Alfonso Mejia
Understanding how climate change will affect the flooding of rivers may become easier with a a a new framework
for assessing flood risk
developed by
The researchers who published
their results in the the Journal of Hydrometeorology considered a a a a a a a wide array of variables in in in their framework
including meteorological hydraulic hydrologic topographic and others “The data and and models required to project flood hazards and and exposure come from diverse academic disciplines and and they must be integrated and and compatible ” said Sanjib Sharma assistant research professor in in the College of of Earth Earth and and Mineral Sciences’ Earth Earth and and Environmental Systems Institute Flood maps are usually drawn to show the 100-year flood flood inundation boundary a a a a a a a a a a a a a flood flood that has a a a a a a a a a a a a a 1% chance of hitting an an an area in in any given year The researchers note that while they they are are producing 100-year maps maps they they also also can produce 500-year maps maps They also also say that as time and climate change progress the 100-year flood maps change as well The map map map for for 2050 is different from the map map for for 2100 The researchers did a a a a a a a a a regional analysis to assess flood hazards and and exposure across all the cities and and boroughs in Pennsylvania “It’s a a a a a really complicated process and and the the geoscientists and and and engineers need to link with the the policy and and insurance people at all levels ” said Mejia
The framework
combines climate model model outputs for a a a a a a hydrologic model model that creates streamflow projections The streamflow projections are joined with a a a a a a a a a a hydraulic model model and a a a a a a a a a a statistical model model to map the uncertainty
of flooding flooding during extreme flooding flooding events The researchers report that climate uncertainty
uncertainty
dominates the the overall uncertainty
uncertainty
surrounding the the flood inundation projection chain The combined hydrologic and hydraulic uncertainties account for as as much as as 37% of the total uncertainty
Also on the project from Penn State were Michael Gomez postdoctoral fellow in in in civil and environmental engineering Sanjib Sharma assistant research professor in in in in the College of of Earth Earth and and Mineral Sciences’ Earth Earth and and Environmental Systems Institute Klaus Keller professor of of geosciences and Robert Nicholas associate research professor of of atmospheric sciences This work
was supported through
the Penn State initiative for resilient communities by
a a a a a a a strategic plan seed grant from from the the the Penn State Office of the the the Provost with co-support from from the the the Center for Community Design and and by
the the National Oceanic and and Atmospheric Administration through
the the Mid- Atlantic Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments program an interdisciplinary research team from Penn State led by
Associate Professor Alfonso Mejia
“New home builders want to to know how high they have to to to put their buildings to to to be safe for the the the future ” Mejia
said “They want to to to know how the the flood zones are going to to change in in the the future ” The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) issues flood maps for areas near rivers but according to the researchers FEMA does does not update its maps frequently nor does does it it project the future potential impact of climate change on on how areas will flood flood FEMA flood flood flood maps are are based on on historically observed flood flood records not future possible events “FEMA does a a a a a a good job in in mapping flood hazards but the the part we are incorporating is the the the future climate so we can understand the the impact of climate on flood hazards and and exposure ” Mejia
said “It’s a a a a a really complicated process and and the the geoscientists and and and engineers need to link with the the policy and and insurance people at all levels ” CEE NEWSLETTER • VOLUME 38 2022
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