Page 4 - January 2007 The Game

4 The Game, January 2007 Canada’s Thoroughbred Racing Newspaper
The Game
Canada’s Thoroughbred Racing Newspaper
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From the Editor - Peter Gross
There were two races this year that I cannot get out of my head. On a hot August Saturday, I was at Saratoga and had the pleasure of watching Invasor win the Grade 1 $750,000 Whitney Handicap. The way he did it was unforgettable.
Under jockey Fernando Jara, the Argentine- bred Invasor made a dramatic sweep to the lead at the head of the stretch. The late-running Sun King, however was mounting a furious bid and in deep stretch he roared up with authority on the outside. With about 70 yards to go, Sun King got his head in front and seemed certain of victory. Invasor would have none of that; he dug in with determination on the rail and came back to win by nose. From the crowd of over 50,000 at Saratoga that
afternoon, you could head a palpable gasp.
Two months later, in the Pattison Canadian International at
Woodbine, the outcome was remarkably similar. Eight-year-old Collier Hill, dismissed in the betting at 10-1, swung to the lead at the top of the majestically long E.P Taylor Turf Course. The strenuous journey down this stretch of grass has broken many a willing thoroughbred and it certainly looked as if Collier Hill was doomed when Go Deputy began to stage his patented late run in the middle of the track. As in the Whitney, the charging horse appeared to put a head in front just moments from the finish line, but once again, the inside horse displayed astonishing courage and battled back to win in a photo by a nose. Collier Hill, an 8 year old, became the oldest horse to win the International.
It’s a moments like this that the air is sucked from your chest. Your jaw drops and your brain suffers from a diminishing capacity to articulate. All you can say is,
Wow!
To me (and I would bet, the majority of people who read this
paper), no other sport or endeavor has quite the wow effect that horseracing has. Go to enough Maple Leafs or Canucks games and you might find yourself mouthing a three letter word, but its;
more likely to be, “Huh?”
Have you ever stood close to a thoroughbred and seen the size of his head, the stunning assemblage of its musculature?
Wow!
Ever seen half a dozen horses charge to the finish line as one, like an equine tsunami and the announcer cries desperately that it’s too close to call?
Wow!
A guy in Vancouver dialed some numbers into his phone and with a $1 bet hit a Pick-7 that paid over $500,000.
Wow!
Todd Kabel stealing a Stakes race and paying 12-1.
Wow!
Women winning horse races at major tracks every day of the
year. Wow!
Scoring two exactors at two different tracks at exactly the same time (I actually did that!)
Wow!
Standing ten metres from the start of a mile and a sixteenth race and watching a dozen horses explode from the gate.
Wow!
This is an amazing sport, painted vividly with extraordinary events, thrilling finishes, unforgettable payoffs and endless sur- prises. The Game is devoted to capturing those moments and bringing them to you.
A whole newspaper, published every month, its pages jammed with racing news, results, feature stories and comments on the people and horses that make this game so fantastic.
Wow!
To start off the New Year, The Game gives you the gift that will keep on giving. Make a copy of this column. Shrink it to wallet size and laminate it. Read it every time you plan on going to the racetrack and repeat to yourself with mantra-like reverence:
Stop Betting the Favourites!
Yeah, I’ve heard that saying; It’s better to have a short price than a long face. But I go to the races for a thrill, and $3.50 to win does not get my pulse racing.
Favourites win one of three races. Every year, at every track, in every jurisdiction, 66% of the time, the horse picked by the betting public disappoints. And when the favourite does score, the payoff is unremarkable.
I say, throw that fish back. It’s barely a snack. We’re trolling for big game here.
There is a lemmings-to-the sea mentality that prevails at the track. The more money bet on a horse, the more the masses convince themselves the horse will win. When 1-9 is flashed on the board, the air of certainty controls the minds of the assembled masses.
No horse should be 1-9. Actually no horse should be less than even money. I say this because no matter how brilliant a horse’s PP is, only two things can happen in the race – either it wins or it loses. To take less than even money on a 50-50 proposition is bad money management.
You want an object lesson in how not to bet the favourites? Go through the results in your racing form. Do it for several races and for several tracks. Underline the favourite in each race.
If you do this a hundred times, you will find horses that failed at 6-5, that failed at 40 cents on the dollar that broke too many hearts while promising less than a $5 win price.
Very often, the reason a horse is made the favourite is because it ran its best race last time out. We’re not looking for that; we want the horse that is about to run its best race this time out. The horse with the highest Beyer figure, with the open lengths win last time out, probably peaked two weeks ago and is now some- what in decline.
But here’s a better reason to bet against the favourite: By breaking away from the crowd, you will get better value for your wager. What would you rather do - cash three times out of ten at odds of 2-1 or two times out of 20 at odds of 12-1? Don’t bother answering; it’s a rhetorical question.
Without explaining the intricacies of pari-mutuel wagering, it’s important to understand that you’re trying to win other people’s money. That’s kind of hard to do when you’re making the same bet as all the others.
There’s another significant advantage to betting non- favourites. You require a much smaller investment; $5 to win on a 14-1 shot will give you a better adrenalin fix than $30 at 4-5.
Everyone who has ever bought a pari-mutuel ticket has experienced the depressing anti-climax of putting their money on a sure thing only to see it stagger out of the money. Losing on a favourite is like asking the plainest girl in school to the prom and getting turned down.
In every race they’re giving out slices of the pie. I go to the track hungry. I want the big slice.
Page 3: ORC Hands Out Stiff Penalties Page 3: Cash for Quarter Horses
Page 4: From the Editor
Page 4: Handicapping 101
Page 5: Futural Retirement
Page 6: 13 Race Card Ends Woodbine Season Page 8: Let Youth Be Served
Page 10: Toy Mountain
Inside This Issue
Page 12: Baze is Best
Page 14:Year of the Guinea Pig
Page 14: Scharfstein to Saskatchewan Page 18: Cowboy Up!
Page 19: HBPA Update
Page 20: In-Form Handicapping
Page 22: Sovereign Awards
Page 24: Equine Health
Page 24: Course of a Lifetime Page 25: Barbaro’s Year
Page 26: Jockeys Weigh In
Page 27: Windfields Open House Page 27: CTHS Winter Mixed Sale Page 28: Star Studded Stallions Page 30: Stallion Listings
Page 31: Classifieds & Professional Directory
Handicapping 101 By Peter Gross