Page 25 - Toy & Hobby Magazine Feb-Apr 2021

WHAT ELSE WAS KEY FOR BIG W?
At Christmas time, we called on Australian families to ‘Bring on the Love’ by adding one extra decoration to their homes - a heart.
Big W’s national act of love, designed to spread joy and connect communities, was rolled out as research highlighted that 12.8 million Aussies (64%) wouldn’t be spending Christmas with family and friends, yet; one in four were feeling more connected to their communities than ever since COVID.
Our store teams got behind the movement by hanging hearts throughout their stores for customers to enjoy, but more importantly were collectively aiming to fundraise a quarter of
a million dollars for charity. We’ve enjoyed a long history of supporting the major Children’s Hospitals around Australia, and in 2020 we were especially humbled to bring much- needed funds that will make a real difference for families.
TOY INDUSTRY 2021: THE OUTLOOK FOR THE GLOBAL TOY BUSINESS
Despite the challenging times we are living through, the outlook for the global toy business
in 2021 is good. 2020 was a terrible year for humankind in terms of disruption to our
way of life and our way of doing business. However, all indicators, from Q1-Q3 results from stock market-listed toy companies, through to market data released into the public domain evidence a significant rise in the overall toy market year on year in nearly every major market.
THE RESILIENCE OF THE GLOBAL
TOY BUSINESS
In this millennium there have been three really tough periods of time so far: the aftermath of the dot com crash and 9/11 at the start of the millennium, the global financial crisis of the late noughties and the COVID-19 pandemic
of 2020. During all three periods of time
global toy sales performed well, especially in comparison with other categories of consumer goods. The primary reason for this resilience
is the fundamentally sound foundation of the toy business: that being the desire of parents (and grandparents) to bring joy to their children and to aid their development. Unless the entire
fabric of global society changes, it is hard to see how this underlying demand driver for the toy business would not continue.
When you add onto this the massive advancements in economic development in countries away from the traditional core
toy markets of Western Europe and North America, the future both short term and
long term looks safe for the toy business. In particular, the growth of consumerism in China offers the biggest growth opportunity of our generation for consumer products businesses of all kinds. Other developing economies of the world are growing fast as well though, and this again bodes well for the prospects for the toy business.
Based on Kids Brand Insight’s analysis, the prospects for growth for the global toy business looks good for each of the next ten years. To look at specific factors affecting the outlook for 2021 though, there are some key trends, opportunities and challenges we can consider:
THE PANDEMIC – WHAT HAPPENS
IN 2021
This is obviously the biggest short term question facing mankind. The good news is that some kind of reduction in the severity of the health crisis is likely looking into the first six months of 2021. Vaccines come online from various sources and admittedly with probably varying effectiveness. There is a realistic prospect of most major toy markets being able to inoculate the most vulnerable in their societies by Easter 2021. That should allow for a more normal
back half of 2021. Either way though, whether vaccination is effective or not we can expect
a good year for toys this year. Should the
vaccination be effective and should humankind be able to enjoy a normal summer, then year on year toy sales could be down for the first half of the year. However 2020’s unseasonal sales boom should be viewed as a one off, and comparisons with 2019 would be more appropriate to gauge 2021’s sales performance.
Should the pandemic largely lift by summer 2021, we can hopefully look forward to a summer boom in toy sales off the back of
a raft of toyetic movie blockbuster releases. Major movie studios have a backlog of output waiting to come forward to cinemas. Even if cinema attendance is down versus pre-pandemic expectations then the movie studios have at
least had time to plan for digital distribution
as a primary way of getting their films to market. In fact, one major positive impact of
the pandemic for the global toy business has been the meteorically successful launch of Disney+ with more than 60 million subscribers worldwide already. It took Netflix around seven or eight years to get to this level of subscribers. This gives the biggest children’s and family entertainment movie producers a fantastic plan B, and ensures that any toy companies signing up for licenses can be sure of some level of global impact with or without movie theatres re-opening in 2021.
TRADE SHOWS AND SALES CYCLES
Clearly the selling process will be more challenging for peak season 2021 with the absence of the major toy trade shows in January and February this time round. Trade shows such as Spielwarenmesse
are so important in terms of creating and strengthening relationships between buyers and sellers on a massive scale. They also
STEVE REECE
Kids Brand Insight CEO
FEBRUARY / MARCH / APRIL 2021 TOY & HOBBY RETAILER 25