Page 17 - HW 0821

stats watch
Statswatch – June 2021
JUNE’S STATS SHOW continued stellar growth in residential consents while commercial construction is the only questionable risk profile.
• June risk: slight improvements.
• June consents break records.
APRIL-JUNE RISK DATA
The promise of construction work in the near future looks to be continuing at a high level, but what is the current outlook in terms of risk?
With fully occupied construction and related sectors, while May’s debt levels continued to rise (see the last issue), this was thought to be more a reflection of the amount of business being done, rather than debt aging.
One month on, our latest risk data for June 2021 from CreditWorks Data Solutions (www.creditworks.co.nz) shows a slight improvement in debt risk overall, in keeping with typical winter patterns.
Alan Johnston of CreditWorks adds: “This is consistent with what we usually see through the winter months, where debt payment seems to seasonally improve.”
Indeed, he says: “Looking at the risk profiles, all categories – with the exception of Commercial Construction – have shown improvement” (i.e. reduced likelihood of default).
Commercial Construction stands out as the only category which didn’t improve over the April-June period and, while not significant, is still seen as bucking the general trend.
Our regular data from CreditWorks assesses the level of credit risk posed by the four business sectors most closely associated with our chosen industry:
1. Residential Construction.
2. Commercial Construction. 3.Hardware,Building&GardenSuppliesRetailing.
4. Core Retailing.
The left axis indicates the % of a sector that is at risk.
The bottom axis shows the % likelihood of failure over the
next 18 months.
Data for July will be posted online first so look to www.
harwdarejournal.co.nz for early notice of changing risk profiles.
JUNE BUILDING CONSENTS
After May’s still strong but more moderate growth, June’s consent data from Stats NZ (www.stats.govt.nz) show residential consent growth continuing to escalate while non- residential took another step backwards.
“June’s consent data show residential consent growth continuing to escalate while non-residential took another step backwards”
Consents by value for the June month were as follows: • Residential: $1.8 billion (+32.2% on June 2020).
• Non-residential: $561 million (–27.4%).
• Total: $2.4 billion (+11.5%).
By volume, 4,310 new dwellings were consented in the month (+24% on June 2020), of which 55% were standalone houses, 30% townhouses, flats & units, 9% apartments and 5% retirement village units.
Year to date June 2021, consent values were as follows: • Residential:$18.8billion(+19.7%onYTDJune2020).
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AUGUST 2021 | NZHJ 15
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