Page 22 - HW Sept 2021

state of the nation survey 2021
What is your outlook for the TRADE market in the next 6 months?
14%
31%
20%
26%
This year, sentiment overall for the consumer market is clearly less positive, with just 31% overall saying it’ll be “Business as usual” in the next six months, compared to 51% last year.
Indeed, a combined 43% also tell us “It’s going to soften” or “It’s going to deteriorate”.
With suppliers’ level of uncertainty a third of what it was last year, in 2021 they are also distinctly less optimistic, with less than a third in 2021 saying it’ll be “Business as usual” compared to almost half last year.
Having said this, twice as many 2021 supplier respondents as last year – presumably those with a grip on their supply chains – have it that the consumer market is “Going to improve”...
Responses from the DIY retailers and merchants were less
question included increasing costs and lead times, a doubling plus of product ordering times, pros and cons of opening the borders, expectations of a moderation of growth compared to last year’s double digits, the consensus being not to expect much more growth on top of the current sustained high levels of activity.
2. Whatisyouroutlookforthe
TRADE market in the next 6 months?
Last year, in terms of opinion on the next six months for the trade, the overall outlook was far clearer cut than for the DIY market with 80% of respondents saying “It’ll be business as usual” or “It’s going to improve”.
Indeed, in 2020, almost 90% of retailers & merchants anticipated at least status quo if not an
“Whilst this snapshot of opinion was taken before the latest lockdowns, it does indicate that prospects for the next half year plus have become quite a bit
less positive since November 2020”
improvement in the trade, although the suppliers were slightly less optimistic
This year, the overall sentiment is again more positive about prospects for the trade compared to the consumer market, with 31% saying “It’s going to improve” and a further 26% forecasting “It’ll be business as usual”.
ambivalent with half the 2020 number forecasting “Business as usual”, and slightly more instead ticking “It’s going to soften” and almost one in five going for “It’s going to deteriorate” (compared to none in the previous survey).
An interesting aside is that the DIY retailers and merchants’ level of uncertainty about the consumer market this year is double last year’s response.
As you would expect, key factors and comments around this
Having said this, the view of fully 34% of respondents in 2021 is that the trade market will either soften or
deteriorate with a slight leaning towards the latter... Last year, no-one at all said the trade market would
deteriorate.
Those suppliers that ticked “It’ll be business as usual” this year
fell to one in five compared to almost a third last year; the big change was those who said “It’s going to deteriorate” increasing from zero to 19% of supplier respondents.
9%
n It’s going to improve
n It’ll be business as
usual
n It’s going to deteriorate
n It’s going to soften
n Uncertain
20 NZHJ | SEPTEMBER 2021
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