Page 35 - HW FEB 2021

global eyes
UK building sector recovery depends on external factors
IN THE UK, the Construction Products Association (CPA) reckons recovery is W-shaped, with construction output expected to rise by 14% in 2021 (after a decline of the same scale in 2020) and rise again by 4.9% in 2022, with, hopefully something of a more sustained recovery thereafter.
The UK building sector may even recover quicker than the overall economy, says the CPA, what with the UK Government allowing construction and manufacturing to continue to operate despite Covid-19 restrictions.
Construction output has been able to rise and recover relatively quickly, says the CPA, however adding the caveat that this positive climate may be dampened by a sharp rise in unemployment once furlough and self-employment support schemes end in April.
Private housing was one of the quickest sectors to recover in 2020, says the CPA, thanks to pent up demand, a stamp duty holiday and the first phase of the Help to Buy scheme but again, from April, these stimuli will disappear.
Commercial construction in the UK has seen a slower recovery, with store closures and low rent collection in retail and leisure as well as the shift away from working in an office all cause for ongoing uncertainty.
Also, the long-term shift to e-commerce in retail and the question of whether widespread homeworking will continue after vaccination offers some sense of normality will be important for commercial building, says the CPA.
Other key variables come with CPA members reporting ongoing disruption in the supply chain and builders citing skill shortages as crucial to any recovery.
Indeed, almost a quarter of structural material suppliers cited material/ component supply as their primary constraint over the next year, compared to just 16% of “light side” product suppliers.
A shortage of construction products including roofing materials and timber is indeed starting to impact on the UK’s building industry, according to the Builders Merchants Federation (BMF).
Some roofing products like roof
tiles for example are not available until August says the organisation, while timber prices have escalated by an average of 20% thanks to high demand, the rising cost of shipping and delays at some British ports.
BMF CE John Newcomb says: “As we reported late last year, we continue to see issues with the availability of products imported in containers, mainly from
the Far East, such as screws and fixings, tools, plumbing items, bathroom suites and shower enclosures. Since then, the situation has only got worse.”
Demand is however also sky high with members’ November growth up 9% on 2019 and December demand positive in double digits, says the BMF.
So, the UK outlook may be tentatively positive, and the recovery may be W-shaped, but high degrees of uncertainty remain even as the UK nears a building and DIY season that normally blossoms in Spring.
www.constructionproducts.org.uk www.bmf.org.uk
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FEBRUARY 2021 | NZHJ 33