Page 6 - HW FEB 2021

editorial
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2456 • 30/9/2018 www.abc.org.nz
Lies, damn lies and...
YES, STATISTICS. IF there’s one takeaway from the National Construction Pipeline Report released just before Christmas, it’s uncertainty.
Forecasting a short-term decline in construction activity as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, as in previous years the Report has set out to model building and construction activity for the next six years.
Its forecasts are “based on current settings”, as well as taking into account lessons from the Global Financial Crisis.
Trouble is, as Mitre 10 CEO Chris Wilesmith recently shared with me, applying learnings from the GFC to last year’s circumstances really wasn’t helpful.
With MBIE itself explicitly noting “a significant degree of uncertainty” as to the findings of the National Construction Pipeline Report, its headline is a decline in the total value of construction through to 2023, before the industry starts to recover.
Residential building will be the most volatile sector, despite the current highs being recorded, says the report.
In 2023, it says, the value of residential construction will fall a massive 43%, alongside an almost 28% decrease in
dwelling consents to an annual average of 26,800 for the next six years.
Also flying in the face of current trends, the Report says that multi-unit dwellings will be hardest hit, particularly apartments, and these are forecast to fall from 41% of all dwellings consented in 2019 to 32% of all dwellings consented in 2022.
The value of all non-residential construction activity is also forecast to plummet by 42% from 2019 levels before recovering in 2025.
Infrastructure is the only sector forecast to see sustained growth, reaching $10.1b in 2025, with a modest +6.3% gain on 2019 forecast.
Time will tell as to the accuracy of these estimates, but it is to be hoped that the construction industry’s reading of and response to these numbers doesn’t leave it with inadequate resource and/or supply in the face of unexpectedly solid demand.
Indeed, according to Dean Kimpton, Transformation Director of the Construction Sector Accord: “It’s important to acknowledge that the report also shows promising signs for the future and that is where the industry should be focused.”
I’ll leave the last word to Bill Newson, Accord Steering Group member and People Development Workstream co-lead: “We have an opportunity to reset and make a difference. Now is the time to be investing in apprenticeships, in training and upskilling our people so that we grow great people and protect what expertise we have.”
Steve Bohling, editor steveb@mpm.nz
4 NZHJ | FEBRUARY 2021
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