Page 22 - HW December 2020

state of the nation
2. What is your outlook for the TRADE market in the next 6 months?
9% 11%
34%
46%
n It’s going to improve
n It’ll be business as
usual
n It’s going to soften
n Uncertain
Comments from the supply side included: “Conservatively optimistic is how I view the next six months, but these headwinds have to have an impact at some point.”
“Expect trade to remain strong with consents still very strong however the consumer is a little more fickle and renos could slow up at any point.”
Retailers & merchants commented: “Key categories such
as landscaping and kitchen/bathrooms have exploded as consumers look to renovate using the money that was potentially allocated for family trips overseas. We think consumers will explore NZ at Christmas then get back and carry on with the renovations.”
“We have had an incredible six months and I believe this
will continue until mid-January. [However] I believe once we get through Christmas the market will begin to soften as our consumers begin to run their wallets dry.”
“Expect to see changes in department participation, but overall do not envisage any major changes. Paint might slow down, but summer seasonal product such as outdoor furniture will do well. Expect core product such as hardware, power tools, power garden to remain strong.”
“Spend patterns post lock-down have surprised everyone, but they’re also defying gravity to a degree and not supported by strong fundamentals (employment, wage growth, etc). Or maybe I’m a pessimist?”
2. What is your outlook for the
TRADE market in the next 6 months?
In terms of opinion on the next half year for the trade, the positive overall outlook is far more clear cut than for the DIY market: almost half said “It’s going to improve” and more than a third said “It’ll be business as usual”.
Perhaps surprisingly, only one in five of all those polled
expressed negative growth or uncertainty for the trade market (see graph 2 above).
In terms of differences in outlook between retailers & merchants and suppliers, almost 90% of retailers & merchants anticipate at least status quo (33%) if not an improvement (56%) in the trade.
Suppliers were slightly less optimistic and rated both “Business as usual” and “It’s going to improve” equally likely (35% each) with fully three times as many suppliers (18%) as retailers & merchants (6%) picking the trade market to soften.
Suppliers commented: “It’ll be business as usual – some vertical markets will be impacted (hospitality etc.).”
“The current shipping restrictions and cost increases will have an impact on product availability which will have a flow-on effect to the ability to complete projects.
“There are going to be ongoing disruptions to the supply chain especially in delays to importing materials and components (the hidden part of the supply chain) from markets like China. In addition, the trade will suffer from a lack of skilled workers.”
Comments on the trade market from retailers & merchants varied quite a lot: “Strong demand, we’re still pricing a lot of new work that should seed a particularly strong 1st half to 2021.”
“Projects on hold will kick in once more – back to normal growth levels.”
“Our residential trade/SME customers are only talking about the next 6 months of work they have locked in and less of them have confirmed work past June/July.”
“Full order book and extra capacity being installed.”
“Commercial construction will continue to soften until the borders open.”
“In Waikato, we are committed to projects throughout 2021. We see the growth from smaller dwellings, apartments and entry-level estates. Need to adapt to changing formats.”
“Most of our trade residential customers have work locked
20 NZHJ | DECEMBER 2020/JANUARY 2021
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