Page 4 - US Market Performance Report 1Q 2018

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Demographics
The US is experiencing slowing population growth rates that were recently revised by the US Census to re ect lower birth rates. If this trend continues, the population growth rate could be revised downward again in the coming years.
The US added 32 million people in the 1990’s, 27 million in the 2000’s and is currently on a pace to add 23 million in the 2010’s. Fertility rates have slowed dramatically with non-Hispanic whites, with their deaths now outnumbering their births in more than half of the states in the country. This, along with higher fertility rates among other racial and ethnic groups means the US is becoming more diverse and older at the same time.
The Lifestage table below shows age segment estimates for 2018 and 2028. Overall, the US Census is predicting the total population will increase 7% in this time period. But the fastest rates of growth will be with those 70+ years of age, growing at 4 to 6 times the overall average rate. Regardless, the proportion of the population 30 to 69 will represent about half (49%) of the total population by 2028, with the older retirees-sole survivors representing 14%.
The Greatest Generation (born 1908-1927) will completely pass away by 2028. More than half of the Silent Generation (born 1928-1945) will pass away by 2028. The Baby Boomer Generation will lose 10 million of its members (-13.6%).
Contrary to popular belief, the Millennial Generation is neither the largest or fastest growing. Gen Z (born 1997-2014) is actually the largest generation, per the age de nitions provided by Pew Research and applied to the latest US Census population age estimates.
US Population, Lifestage Age Segments
Ratio to Total Pop
Segment Age Range 2018 2028
Difference % Difference
Growth Rate
Children Adolescents Young Adults Newly weds Young Families Mature Families Empty Nesters Ret irees Sole Survivors
<12 48, 679, 684 12to17 24, 984, 708 18to29 54, 151, 129 30to39 43, 682, 166 40to49 40, 515, 214 50to59 42, 936, 127 60to69 37, 536, 004 70to84 28, 824, 569
85+ 6,539,310 TOTALS 327,848,911
50, 155, 020 24, 818, 521 53, 532, 642 48, 084, 906 44, 297, 452 39, 616, 867 40, 206, 090 41, 533, 512
8, 397, 578 350, 642, 588
74, 973, 541
53, 532, 642 172, 205, 315 49, 931, 090
21. 4% 15. 3% 49. 1% 14. 2%
1, 475, 336
-166,187
-618,487
4, 402, 740
3, 782, 238
-3,319,260
2, 670, 086 12, 708, 943 1, 858, 268
22, 793, 677 1, 309, 149
-618,487
7, 535, 804 14,567,211
3. 0%
-0.7% -1.1% 10. 1% 9. 3% -7.7% 7. 1% 44. 1% 28. 4%
7. 0% 1. 8%
-1.1%
4. 6% 41. 2%
0. 44
-0.10 -0.16 1. 45 1. 34 -1.11 1. 02 6. 34 4. 09
1. 00 0. 26
-0.16
0. 66 5. 92
Minors 73,664,392 Pre-Families 54,151,129 Family HH's 164,669,511 Retirees-Sole Survivors 35,363,879
Minors 22.5%
P r e - Fa mi l i e s
Family HH's Retirees-Sole Survivors
1 6 . 5 % 50.2% 10.8%
Sources: Pew R esearch, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Population Counts from the US Census NP2017_D1: R elease date: March 13, 2018
US Population, Generation Segments
Generation Birth Years 2018 2028
Difference % Difference
Greatest Silent
Baby Boomer Gen X Millennial Gen Z
Gen A
1908-1927 1928-1945 1946-1964 1965-1980 1981-1996 1997-2014 2015-2033
2, 101, 812 24, 454, 802 72, 770, 819 65, 531, 990 72, 143, 466 74, 730, 065 16,115,957
0 11,503,787 62, 890, 187 63, 869, 241 74, 600, 637 79, 391, 125 58,387,611
-2,101,812 -12,951,015 -9,880,632 -1,662,749 2, 457, 171 4, 661, 060 42, 271, 654
22,793,677
-100.0% -53.0% -13.6%
-2.5%
3. 4%
6. 2% 262. 3%
7.0%
327,848,911 350,642,588
Sources: Pew Research, U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division
Population Counts from the US Census NP2017_D1: Release date: March 13, 2018
While the birth years are estimates ranging from anywhere from 15 to 20 years, they are based on societal events that affect the formative years of
a generation. Pew recently revised the birth years of both Millennials and Gen Z, making them somewhat older than originally estimated. The Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School mass shooting in Florida appears to be the unique formative event that warranted Pew’s de nition change. This also enlarged Gen Z and when estimating a 17-year generation cycle, they are the largest generation in the population.
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