Page 64 - STRATEGY Magazine (G)

Public debt in Guatemala is approximately 24 percent, while government consumption comprises 14.1 percent of the domestic output.
declined from a rate of 7.7 percent to 4.2 percent during the same timeframe. International oil prices are impacting the local economy; with a barrel of oil trading in the low US $30s, a decrease of about 65 percent over 2015’s highest point, all aspects of the economy are slowing, in particular, domestic prices. Official policy calls for an annual infla- tion target of 3 to 5 percent; the actual numbers are much lower, however: the Guatemala Consumer Price Index indi- cated an annual rate of 1.88 percent in September 2015, barely more than half the rate of 3.45 percent a year earlier.
Total GDP in terms of dollars is expected to reach US $81.56 billion by the year 2020. The anticipated growth rate is also expected to remain just over 4 percent during that same timeframe, and the GDP per capita is expected to rise to US $2,441. Many financial indica- tors are expected to remain roughly the same over the next five years, including inflation, interest rates, money supply, and foreign exchange reserves. Notable forecasted declines are in balance of
trade, exports, and imports, although none of these forecasts show drastic change.
Though the nation’s political volatility has lessened, corruption and scandals still remain a considerable hurdle for both foreign and local investors. The past year saw the resignation of the entire government amid allegations
of corruption. The World Bank laid
out the challenges that will meet the new government in 2016, including “fostering transparency and inclusive growth, addressing social inequalities, and ensuring revenues to finance public spending on education, health, and infrastructure.”
Guatemala has a new president in Jimmy Morales, the 46-year-old former television comedian who was sworn into office on January 14, 2016. Morales’ stance on many political and socioeco- nomic issues is still relatively unknown due to his lack of political experience. His landslide victory in the recent election is attributed to his campaign’s anti-corruption focus and his desire
to distance the nation’s government from the allegedly corrupt activities of the previous administration, and this continued to be his message during his inaugural speech.
As is the case with his political posi- tioning, little is known about Morales’ ability to actually implement real change, and while his speech made clear his intentions on the issue of corruption, there were no specifics mentioned as
to his aspirations on policies of actual reform. He admitted that there are no easy answers, that the concerns are
vast and the remedies meager. His party is not well represented in Congress, holding only 11 of the 158 congressional seats; therefore, his capacity to be polit- ically effective is a matter, at this point, of intense speculation. This holds true not only for President Morales himself but also Congress’s ability to collaborate as a unified entity. Nevertheless, it is the hope of Guatemala that new political beginnings are taking shape and that the economy will only benefit from the changes.
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STRATEGY
SPECIAL REPORT
Can Universities Make the Grade?
ROBERTO MARROQUIN Country Manager Microsoft Guatemala
In today’s hyper-connected world, Guatemala’s young people are technologically savvy. But
is education keeping up? Roberto Marroquin, Country Manager for Microsoft Guatemala, points out that Guatemala’s youth “will begin to be in charge of companies in another 10 years.”
Unfortunately, the nation’s universities have lagged behind the reality of constant technolog- ical change. “They must adjust the curriculum to the needs of the new era,” insists Marroquin. Companies cannot afford to retrain university graduates who have an outdated education.
ADJUSTING TO CHANGE
Private enterprises partner with universities to offer new technology and learning tools. Infor- mation technology (IT) firms team with schools
to provide transition to cloud-based learning by making current software available at no charge to students and faculty. Schools also engage in programs that will change the mix of students.
Most of Guatemala’s tech professionals today are male. “We think that including more females in that workforce will help us,” says Marroquin. Many organizations offer programs, such as International Girls in ICT Day, sponsored by the International Telecommunication Union, that introduce young women to female role models and allow them to get “hands on” experience in technology in practical workshops.
“I think our population is young, but we have the professional workforce we need to do busi- ness.” Does Marroquin think Guatemala is pre- pared? “We need some additional readiness and training, but we have the human capital.”
“There is some disparity between what the industry needs and what the universities are offering. We need to align those two things.”