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Groton Daily Independent
Monday, July 31, 2017 ~ Vol. 25 - No. 031 ~ 39 of 42
The assembly is certain to continue the socialist policies rst installed by Chavez.
Aside from rewriting the constitution, the National Constituent Assembly could function as a sort of super-body that assumes the powers of the National Assembly, the only government branch not controlled by Maduro.
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WHAT DO VENEZUELANS THINK OF THE PLAN?
A June survey by Venezuelan polling rm Datanalisis said just 23 percent favor the constituent assem-
bly. Only 19 percent said they thought a new constitution would “guarantee the peace of stability of the country,” as Maduro has asserted. Nearly half said they believe the purpose of the assembly is to ensure Maduro stays in power.
Earlier this month, more than 7.5 million Venezuelans voted in an unof cial opposition referendum re- jecting the constitution rewrite.
But those numbers do not mean Venezuelans are unlikely to show up at polling stations Sunday. Aside from government loyalists, groups of state workers and government organization are being mobilized and pressured to cast ballots.
Luis Vicente Leon, president of Datanalsis, said that because the government has access to data show- ing who does and does not vote, many people are likely to feel obligated to participate or risk losing their jobs in a country with severe food shortages and triple-digit in ation.
“If this was a free election, without pressure, about a third of the number that participated in the popular consult would vote,” he said, referring to the opposition referendum.
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WHAT IS AT STAKE FOR THE GOVERNMENT?
Its survival.
Recent breaks with Maduro by high-level of cials including longtime government loyalist Luisa Ortega
Diaz, the chief prosecutor, and a string of former Cabinet ministers under Chavez indicate discord already exists within the ruling party.
Radical changes in the 1999 constitution, which was crafted by Chavez and considered one of his crowning legacies, could cause even greater division, said John Magdaleno, director of the Caracas-based consulting rm POLITY.
“It’s not just a matter of whether the constituent assembly is put in place or not,” he said. “It’s what impact its creation could have.”
Foreign governments including the United States have threatened to further isolate the government.
President Donald Trump has said the U.S. will take “strong and swift economic actions” if the constituent assembly election proceeds. That could potentially include reducing U.S. imports of Venezuelan oil, a move that could cripple the economy. The government relies heavily on the U.S. as a source of hard currency, because its oil exports to other major trade partners like China are paying off debts.
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HOW IS THE OPPOSITION LIKELY TO RESPOND?
The con ict between the government and the opposition won’t end Sunday.
A coalition of Venezuelan opposition parties proposed but then appeared to back away from its call to
form an alternative “government of national unity.” Nonetheless, a recent move by the opposition-controlled National Assembly to appoint 33 magistrates to replace the government-stacked Supreme Court again raised the specter of a potential parallel government.
“The question is whether that parallel government could govern,” said Leon, the pollster.
For now, any alternative of cials named by the opposition remain purely symbolic. Three of the 33 opposition-appointed magistrates have been detained, while the others have been threatened with arrest and are unable to ll their posts.
A prolonged con ict appears increasingly likely. Third parties have sought unsuccessfully to forge nego- tiations between the administration and its foes.