Page 4 - Carmarthenshire Skills Report 2024

Information taken from the ONS 2021 census data.
Between the last two censuses (held in 2011 and
2021), the population of Carmarthenshire increased
by 2.2%, from around 183,800 in 2011 to around
187,900 in 2021.
This means Carmarthenshire's population increased
by a greater percentage than the overall population
of Wales (The population of Wales increased by 1.4%)
An older Carmarthenshire
Between the last two censuses, the average (median)
age of Carmarthenshire increased by two years, from
44 to 46 years of age.
The number of people aged 65 to 74 years rose by
just under 4,300 (an increase of 21.0%), while the
number of residents between 35 and 49 years fell by
around 4,200 (11.7% decrease). This indicates that the
rise in population levels is being driven by an older
demographic.
When looking at working age populations (16-64)
there are circa 110,200 residents ( 58.6% of the
population) however 22% of these are 50-64 and will
be due to retire within the next 15 years
The key element of this information is when we look
and compare the 50–64 age group with the 10-15
population because this is the transition from
retirement figures to new entrants to the workforce.
The below 15’s make up 17% of the population, yet
due to retire in the same time window (50– 64 age
group) make up 22% which makes a 5% gap in
available labour. Add to this to a 4% drop in16–49
year-olds, within the next 10 years Carmarthenshire
could potentially have 10% less available workforce
than current levels.
This however does not provide a completed picture;
social issues also need to be considered.
Economic activity: Out of the 26,900 inactive residents
aged between 16-64, 33% are long term sick equating
to just under 9,000 people:
Over 3,9000 residents within the inactive cohort have
stated they would like a job, current employability
programmes reach out to this cohort.
With low unemployment levels (3.8% at time of
publication) although good for jobseekers, is creating
a tightening of the labour market currently and with
the demographic challenges being faced over the
next 10 years, it is prudent to have workforce
planning systems in place.
Demographics
Population rise and fall by age - Carmarthenshire
Working
age
Figure 1:
Figure 2:
Population share by age - Carmarthenshire
4
Labour Market Profile - Nomis - Official Census and Labour Market Statistics
(nomisweb.co.uk)
How life has changed in Carmarthenshire: Census 2021 (ons.gov.uk)
Carmarthenshire population change, Census 2021 – ONS