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other's domestic affairs,” which must be signed in tandem.
Lavrov’s statement on February 12 is a further clarification of this new hard line. The Kremlin is now categorically rejecting any pressure from the West over the Navalny affair, or anything it considers to be domestic issues, and
is prepared to break off diplomatic relations with the EU if any sanctions are imposed. However, Russia’s long- standing foreign minister left some room for purely symbolic sanctions to be imposed as part of a face-saving exercise for the EU.
"We don't want to isolate ourselves from international life, but we have to be ready for it. You want peace – get ready for war," Lavrov said.
Lavrov called the EU "an unreliable partner" during his joint press conference with Borrell and in effect
set the bar for co-operation between Europe and Russia at zero. Russia’s new line is that it is willing to work with the West, but only on its own terms and only if there are no more attempts to exert pressure on the Kremlin through the
use of sanctions.
The Russian foreign ministry also announced the expulsion of three diplo- mats from Poland, Germany and Sweden in the midst of the joint press conference in an extremely aggressive move.
According to the EU, Russia has been violating Navalny’s human rights: "I warned the EU's head of diplomacy that if he would present this topic at
a press conference in such an angle,
I would give an example in response of the Catalans sentenced to 12 years and more in prison for participating in the organisation of the referendum on Catalonia's independence," said
the minister.
According to Lavrov, "individual EU member states" had assured Russia that they "were against the sanctions" because "they realised that this would lead to nothing." Some countries like Cyprus are dependent on Russian business and blocked sanctions on Belarus last summer under pressure from Moscow. Other countries like Serbia and Hungary are openly reaching out to Russia to co-operate, while others such as Italy have taken a milder position than hardliners like Poland and the Baltic States.
New sanctions on Russia by the EU are dwindling and will be made less likely following Lavrov’s statement. Borrell already said during his visit to Moscow that “not one” EU member state had proposed new sanctions on Russia. While that might be technically true, both Poland and the Baltic States
have already openly called for fresh sanctions.
Russian government launches a National Projects 2.0 revamp
Ben Aris in Berlin
Getting the 12 national projects to work has become an existential problem for the Kremlin, and they are not working. So the govern- ment has launched a revamp that it hopes will re-energise the programme that is intended to transform Russia and return the prosperity it enjoyed during Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first term in office.
With the mass roll-out of coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccinations well underway and infection rates already beginning to fall, the government
is hoping for an economic rebound this year, after the relatively mild 3.1% contraction in 2020. The early indicators are that the economy is already starting to recover after all three of the PMI indices – services,
manufacturing and composite – went back into the black in January.
However, the pandemic has put the national project programme back and the final disbursement of the RUB27 trillion ($357bn) spending has been delayed from its original completion date of 2024 to 2030. The programme got off to a
slow start in 2019 but by the end of that year real incomes started to grow briefly on the back of all the budget spending. However, the respite was short-lived as a double whammy of an oil price shock and the start of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic hit in March of 2020.
The country has been riven by mass protests following the return and
arrest on January 17 of anti-corruption activist and opposition politician Alexei
Navalny, who was sentenced to 2.8 years in jail on February 2; popular dissent has been building slowly after six years of real income declines. While Russian incomes are the highest in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Russians themselves
are as worried about losing the gains already made as they are dissatisfied with Putin, a full blown Ukrainian-style revolution remains a remote possibility.
Nevertheless, the Kremlin is acutely aware that it needs to restore growth and see incomes start to rise again, otherwise social discord will continue to increase. The Navalny affair has only thrown this problem into sharp relief and bne IntelliNews staff in Moscow say Navalny has catalysed a national debate over what sort of future awaits the
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