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In challenging Kazakhstan’s primacy, officials in Tashkent are benefiting from the Uzbek diaspora – including economic migrant clusters in Kazakhstan and Russia, exclaves throughout Central Asia, and nearly 2mn ethnic Uzbeks
in Afghanistan. This dispersed Uzbek population creates
a unique vector of Eurasian integration. Mirziyoyev now pointedly refers to Afghanistan as an “unalienable part of Central Asia.”
Tashkent’s connectivity challenge
Moving forward, Tashkent will need to play its cards carefully to maintain its forward momentum, particularly when it comes to making expensive transport and infrastructure investments.
Uzbekistan’s top transport priority is a long-stalled rail connection from the Ferghana Valley through Kyrgyzstan to China’s Xinjiang province. A longer-term aim is to connect its manufacturing base to a southern port – either Gwadar in Pakistan, or Chabahar in Iran, via a rail corridor through Afghanistan. The latter project would also benefit Kazakhstan’s export competitiveness.
At present, high regional transport costs along with border inefficiencies are undercutting any potential comparative advantage Uzbekistan has for exporting its goods. Though still problematic, Uzbekistan has tried to address these
Opinion 69 problems by introducing simplified border inspection
requirements and documentary compliance.
Not only must Tashkent solve its connectivity challenge,
it must do so in a way that is fiscally sound and promotes regional trade as broadly as possible. A wrong bet could undo the progress of the past five years. Uzbekistan remains a poor country without the capital reserves to repay large underperforming debts.
Ultimately, China’s investment choices could be a deciding factor. Beijing doubtless notices the potential benefits of Uzbekistan’s low-cost labour, economic dynamism, and potential for regional political leadership. Whether Chinese leaders also prioritise investments in transit routes that benefit Uzbekistan is another matter.
Article authors: Nathan Hutson is a professor at the University of North Texas. He is a specialist on China’s Belt and Road Initiative and previously worked as a consultant for the World Bank. Marsha McGraw Olive is a retired World Bank manager and former senior vice president of the Eurasia Foundation. She is
a lecturer at The Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies.
This article originally appeared on Eurasianet.
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