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bne February 2024 Companies & Markets I 27
Low-emissions electricity generation will outpace robust electricity demand growth for the next three years / GWEC
bne:Green
Low-emissions electricity to outpace demand increase for next three years at least
Roberta Harrington in Los Angeles
Low-emissions electricity generation will outpace robust electricity demand growth for the next three years. This is because renewables are growing rapidly and nuclear power is on track to reach new a all-time high in 2025, says a new report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
Electricity 2024 is the latest edition of the IEA’s annual analysis of electricity market developments and policies, providing forecasts for demand, supply and CO2 emissions from the sector through the end of 2026.
The study reveals a shift in electricity demand trends. In 2023, global electricity consumption growth slowed to 2.2% due to reduced usage in advanced economies. However, projections indicate an upcoming surge to an average of 3.4% from 2024 to 2026.
Around 85% of the world's increased electricity demand until 2026 will originate outside advanced economies, notably from China, India and Southeast Asian countries.
Nonetheless, renewable and low-emission electricity generation – comprising renewables, such as solar, wind and hydro, as well as nuclear power – is poised to reduce fossil fuel reliance for homes and businesses.
Low-emission sources are anticipated to contribute nearly half of global electricity generation by 2026, up from below 40% in 2023.
Renewables will surpass coal, constituting over one-third of total electricity generation by early 2025.
Additionally, global nuclear power generation is predicted to reach record levels by next year as output from France climbs, several plants in Japan come back online, and new reactors begin commercial operations in many markets, including in China, India, South Korea and Europe.
This shift signifies a historic moment as the share of fossil fuels in global electricity generation falls below 60% for the first time in more than five decades, according to IEA records.
IEA executive director Fatih Birol remarked: "Renewables and the resurgence of nuclear power show promising trends to meet rising global electricity demand while reducing CO2 emissions."
“The power sector currently produces more CO2 emissions than any other in the world economy, so it’s encouraging that the rapid growth of renewables and a steady expansion of
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