Page 62 - bne magazine February 2024_20240206

62 Opinion
bne February 2024
Jaguar Land Rover's car assembly plant in Nitra, Western Slovakia. / JLR VISEGRAD BLOG
Slovakia can't afford another four wasted years
Robert Anderson in Prague
Adecade ago, The Economist magazine predicted that the Slovak economy would soon overtake that of its traditionally wealthier Central European neighbour, the Czech Republic. Following neoliberal reforms by Mikulas Dzurinda’s 1998-2006 governments, Slovakia’s “Tatra Tiger” economy had attracted a wave of foreign direct investment (FDI) and seemed much more dynamic than its sclerotic former federation partner. Slovak gross domestic product (GDP) per capita on a purchasing power basis soared from 43% of the European Union (EU) average in 2000 to 78%
in 2015, closing in on Czechia at 87%.
It didn’t happen. Last year, 30 years after the split of Czechoslovakia, Slovak GDP per capita had actually fallen back to 68% of the EU average, compared to now 91% for
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Czechia, making it the third poorest country in the bloc after Bulgaria and Greece.
Economists point out some technical issues with these convergence figures but no-one disputes that Slovak growth in the 15 years since the 2008 global financial crisis has been very disappointing.
This year growth has only been slightly better than its neighbours at an estimated 1.3%, according to the European Commission. It forecasts an acceleration to 1.7% next year and 2% in 2025, but this is still a far cry from the 8.9% growth Slovakia enjoyed in 2006.
Many economists blame the stagnation on Robert Fico’s three