Page 5 - UKRRptJul22

Ukraine’s GDP fell by 15.1% in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the first quarter of 2021, after growing by 6.1% in the fourth quarter of last year. The World Bank forecasts a 45.1% decline in Ukraine’s economy this year, while the National Bank of Ukraine says the downturn will be at least 30%. No one really knows and it's all a bit academic while the fighting is still going on.
However, thoughts are already turning to what comes next. There was a Ukraine Reconstruction Conference in the first week of July to begin the process of building a “platform” to revive the country when peace comes. Ukraine’s Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says the country needs $750bn and Russia and the oligarchs should be made to pay. Some sort of Marshall Plan is on the cards. The physical damage to housing and infrastructure needs to be fixed first and indeed work on housing has already started as the flood of refugees has turned into an ebb as Russia’s attacks outside of the Donbas dwindle.
The government of Ukraine has announced a new economic strategy. A total of 8 programs will be launched to create jobs through business support, government procurement, construction, lending, and employment of the unemployed.
In particular, the program will include non-refundable grant aid to small and medium-sized businesses, support for Ukrainian producers, and the construction of new infrastructure. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal talked about six grant programs for now:
● The first program is in the form of microgrants to start your own business.
● The second initiative is grants, not to be repaid, for equipment for the development of processing enterprises: woodworking, furniture production, production of clothing or accessories, building materials, agricultural processing, etc.
● The third initiative is a program in the agricultural sector that provides partial compensation for the cost of greenhouses.
● The fourth program is also related to the agricultural sector in the form of grants for planting new orchards and berries under co-financing from the state and businesses.
● The fifth program is aimed at the IT sector. The Ukrainian Startup Support Fund provides financial assistance for newly established companies to assist in current activities as well as acceleration programs.
● The sixth program will finance the training of 60,000 IT specialists. Ukrainians who want to qualify as a junior developer, graphic designer, or other technical specialties will be eligible.
The work will be phased as once peace arrives housing will be a top priority. But what comes next will be a long and complicated topic. Clearly Ukraine is about to receive a once in a generation opportunity to build the country of their dreams as the financial assistance will be massive. But they will have to be clear about what that dream is and that remains an open question.
5 UKRAINE Country Report XXXX 2018 www.intellinews.com