Page 61 - bneIntelliNews monthly country report Russia May 2024

In January-February 2024, the EU reduced imports of products from the Russian mining and metallurgical complex by 34.6% compared to the same period in 2023 - to 577,010 tons. The costs of importing Russian MMC products decreased by 33% to €291.9M. At the same time, the EU increased the import of semi-finished products from Ukraine by 21.6% in the first two months of the year compared to the same period in 2023 - to 180,850 tons. Product imports in monetary terms increased by 14.9% to $92.77M.
5.2.2 Current account dynamics
Russia’s monthly current account surplus surged to $13.5bn in March, up significantly from $5.6bn in February. This would put Russia on course to earn over $120bn this year the Central Bank said in a report.
KSE disagrees, and thinks that oil and gas exports reached $225bn in 2023 and will drop to $204bn in 2024, $179bn in 2025. This will weigh on the overall current account, with surpluses of only $51bn and $44bn in 2024-25, respectively. It is critical to main pressure through sanctions as $10/barrel in oil prices change export earnings by ~$25-30bn/year.
Sanctions and lower energy prices are reducing Russia’s current account surplus, which fell from $4.7 billion in November 2023 to $600 million the following month, its lowest level since 2020.31 Russia’s overall current account surplus for 2023 totaled $50.2 billion, down from a record $238 billion in 2022 on the back of a surge in global energy prices.
· The surplus of the balance of foreign trade in goods amounted to 16.7bn US dollars, increasing by 9.0bn US dollars compared to the updated indicator of February 2024 due to a significant increase in exports of goods with stable import volumes;
· the deficit in the balance of services amounted to 1.9bn US dollars, which is 1.3bn US dollars more than the updated February figure:
· the seasonal increase in Russians traveling abroad, taken into account in the import of services under the item “Travel”, had an impact;
· the total deficit of primary and secondary income amounted to 1.4bn US dollars compared to 1.8bn US dollars a month earlier, mainly due to increased charges in favor of residents;
· external liabilities decreased by $0.2bn (by $1.1bn in February 2024) with multidirectional debt dynamics in various institutional
61 RUSSIA Country Report May 2024 www.intellinews.com