Page 77 - bneIntelliNews monthly country report Russia May 2024

7.0 FX
RUSSIA -FX
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
2Q22
3Q22
4Q22
1Q23
2Q23
4Q23
1Q24
April 24
Currency (units per EUR) (eop)
86.4
86.4
90.5
56.2
56.5
78.9
79.2
90.4
82.8
84.2
99.7
Currency (units per USD) (eop)
73.4
73.4
81.8
53.1
58.9
74.0
73.6
83.5
77.0
78.0
93.4
Currency (units per EUR) (average)
86.4
86.4
99.4
73.0
86.3
64.3
78.5
88.5
77.1
81.4
100.0
Currency (units per USD) (average)
73.0
73.0
88.9
68.4
76.8
63.0
73.3
81.2
72.5
75.6
93.2
source: CBR
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development expects a significant weakening of the ruble by the end of 2024. The Ministry of Economic Development presented individual components of the updated forecast of socio-economic development for the coming years. The agency improved its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 from 2.3% to 2.8% y/y due to higher expectations for consumer activity, leaving the growth forecast at 2.3–2.4% in 2025–2027. The Ministry of Economic Development raised the forecast for the growth of real disposable income in 2024 from 2.7% to 5.2% y/y, for retail trade turnover - from 3.6% to 7.7% y/y, paid services to the population - from 2 .9% to 5.1%. Against this backdrop, the agency also raised its forecast for price growth in 2024 from 4.5% to 5.1% y/y and expects inflation to return to the target in 2025.
In terms of foreign economic activity, the Ministry of Economic Development lowered the forecast for the average export price of Russian oil in 2024 from 71.3 to 65.0 dollars per barrel (expects it at a similar level until 2027), as well as the trade balance surplus from 151 to 105 billion dollars. Taking this into account, the agency raised the forecast for the average ruble exchange rate for 2024 from 90.1 to 94.7 rubles/dollar. and expects it to weaken over the entire forecast horizon (98.6, 101.2 and 103.8 rubles/dollar on average in 2025, 2026 and 2027). Taking into account the dynamics of the national currency since the beginning of the year, this implies an average ruble exchange rate of 96.2 rubles/dollar. until the end of 2024.
77 RUSSIA Country Report May 2024 www.intellinews.com