Page 37 - bne IntelliNews George country report Sept 2017

lender, post double-digit growth in assets, profitability and lending and secure almost $200mn in financing from several international financial institutions (IFIs). The sale was completed at "a small discount" compared to the price of the shares, which stood at GBP17 on June 5. The EBRD agreed to a 90-day lock-up period on the residual stake.
8.4 International ratings
Georgia - Rating agency
as of June 2017
Bond rating: Moody’s
Ba3 (Stable)
Bond rating: Fitch
BB- (Stable)
Bond rating: S&P
BB- (Stable)
S&P affirms Georgia at BB-, outlook stable
Fitch warns of rising foreign debt as it affirms Georgia at BB-
Standard& Poor's (S&P) anticipates that Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia's (GDDG) victory in the October parliamentary election will not result in any significant policy changes, the ratings agency wrote in an analysis on November 11, in which it also reaffirmed the country's rating at 'BB-/B' with a stable outlook.
The S&P report came out the same week as a report by Moody's, which also reaffirmed the country's rating and said it was not expecting any major policy changes from a second GDDG administration. S&P elaborated by saying that the government was expected to maintain public finances in strong shape and to focus on economic growth, but that the landslide victory, which ensured a constitutional majority for GDDG of 115 seats out of 150 in parliament, could erode democratic checks and balances. The latter, however, is not S&P's baseline scenario, as Georgia has some of the strongest institutions in the region, the agency added.
S&P forecasts economic growth to the tune of 2.8% in 2016, which will gradually increase over the coming years up to 5% in 2019. The factors supporting this optimistic forecast are the robust investment anticipated to come on line in the next two years, underpinned by a number of public and private projects in energy and tourism; strong consumption performance supported by moderate inflation levels; and a strengthening export performance starting in 2017 on the back of government efforts to diversify exports and an economic recovery in Russia and Azerbaijan, important trade partners of Georgia's.
The agency added that government debt is expected to inflate to 3.5% of GDP in 2017-2019, in part due to the depreciation of the Georgian lari and the high level of dollarisation of Georgia's external debt. External government debt is expected to peak at 43% of GDP in 2018. Georgia's weak external position remains one of the main constraints on its rating, as the current account deficit has continued to grow, reaching a four-year high of 12% of GDP in 2015.
Fitch has affirmed Georgia's long-term foreign and local currency issuer default rating (IDR) at 'BB-' with a stable outlook citing the country's large current account deficit, high level of external debt, low external liquidity, subdued per capita income and economic resilience as decisive factors. The rating also applies to the country's senior unsecured bonds. The short-term foreign and local currency rating was affirmed at 'B' and the country
37 GEORGIA Country Report September 2017 www.intellinews.com