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2020, partly reflecting the effects of its large-scale coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on domestic consumption and the services sectors.
According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook released on April 14, Iran will this year suffer a GDP contraction of 6%. Warning that the “Great Lockdown” brought about around the world by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic would cause the worst recession experienced internationally since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the IMF said Iran was inevitably in for another tough year following last year’s estimated 7.6% decline in economic output, although it added that the country might achieve growth of 3.1% in 2021.
The IMF projected the Iranian economy to endure consumer price inflation of 34.2% and 33.5% this year and next year, respectively. Last year, the rate was an estimated 41.1%.
For Iran’s current account balance across 2019, 2020 and 2021, the IMF gave estimated figures of -0.1%, -4.1% and -3.4% of GDP, respectively.
For Iran’s unemployment rates across 2019, 2020 and 2021, the IMF estimated 13.6%, 16.3% and 16.7% of GDP, respectively.
On the political front, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on July 21 in a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi that Iran will strike a reciprocal blow against the US for its killing of top Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Qasem Soleimani, according to Khamenei’s official website. Soleimani was killed by a US drone strike at Baghdad Airport on January 3 after Trump gave the go-ahead for the operation.
2.0 Politics
2.1 Iran’s latest daily coronavirus cases figure highest in
nearly a month
Iranian officials said on August 2 that the latest one-day rise in confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) infections in Iran was the country’s highest in nearly a month.
Health Ministry spokeswoman Sima Sadat Lari said 2,685 people had tested positive for the virus in the past 24 hours, the highest count since July 8. She called the epidemiological situation "concerning" in 25 of Iran's 31 provinces. Iran has the ninth-most infections of any country at more than 309,437.
COVID-19 has officially killed 17,190 Iranians, the 10th-highest death toll in the world. However, Iran has announced an ‘excess deaths’ statistical breakdown for the pandemic period meaning it is difficult to say how many other deaths not blamed on the virus did in fact result from it.
The Islamic Republic is suffering a second spike of virus cases which began with people in recent months meeting for religious occasions and national holidays and the reopening of stores, government officials have previously said.
5 IRAN Country Report August 2020 www.intellinews.com
