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including the prices for oil and potash fertilizers. “It would be great if we boosted the economy not only through raw materials and oil refining. We need to develop production at modernized enterprises, such as woodworking, light industry, and others. We have conditions for that. As you know, the forecast for GDP growth for 2018 is 3.5%. The first three months showed that we can make a faster movement forward given a favorable situation on foreign markets. GDP grew 5.1%,” Vladimir Zinovsky said.
“Our GDP peaked at about $80bn in 2014. This year we expect it to reach $60bn,” Krutoi said. The government plan is to then increase the size of the economy to $100bn by the end of 2025. The was a small decline in the size of the economy in the first quarter y/y, but that was “fully expected,” the minister said. “We expected that figure primarily due to the growing base of last year when we had slightly different volumes on the market of oil products as part of the April agreements on oil and gas with Russia. The effect of the base is slightly eroding now. We expect we will be able to secure 3.5% GDP growth this year,” he added. GDP growth this year will be underpinned by export and by the growing domestic demand. “As far as export is concerned, virtually all our traditional products are on the rise. The best news is the growing investment export — vehicles, equipment, machine tools. We are regaining presence on our traditional markets in terms of the physical volume and the cost terms,” said Krutoi. In early May the EBRD reviewed its Belarusian economy growth forecast upwards .
Selected macroeconomic indicators 2014-2019
2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018F 2019F
GDP, at constant market prices 1.7 -3.8 -2.6 1.8 2.1 2.4
4 BELARUS Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com