Page 7 - BELRptJune18

4.2 Inflation
Inflation in Belarus stood at 0.3% month-on-month in April ( vs 0.8% m/m in March), and 2.8% year-on-year (vs 4.5% y/y in March), according to the national statistics agency Belstat.
In November, the National Bank of Belarus (NBB)'s governor Pavel Kallaur said that the regulator estimates inflation will be about 6% in 2018. The central bank also predicts the key refinance rate will be cut to 10% in 2018. In March, the NBB left unchanged its key refinancing rate at 10.5% following a cut of the rate by 0.5 percentage points (pp) in February.
"This year's inflation is projected at 5-6%. Next year it is forecast at 4-5%. We should reach the inflation of 3-4% [in 2020]," he said in late April.
"Prices should be kept under control." In November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that "further space for easing the monetary policy stance would be created by a tighter fiscal stance, lower quasi-fiscal activities, particularly directed lending, and wage increases consistent with productivity growth". "For the medium term, the authorities should continue to lay the groundwork for the planned transition to inflation targeting, including further development of financial markets, reducing market distortions (specifically fiscal dominance), and further strengthening the NBB’s operational capacity and independence," the IMF said in a statement following the lender's mission visit to the country to conduct the Article IV consultation
The central bank also predicts the key refinance rate will be cut to 10% in 2018. In March, the NBB left unchanged its key refinancing rate at 10.5% following a cut of the rate by 0.5 percentage points (pp) in February.
In November, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that "further space for easing the monetary policy stance would be created by a tighter fiscal stance, lower quasi-fiscal activities, particularly directed lending, and wage increases consistent with productivity growth".
7 BELARUS Country Report June 2018 www.intellinews.com