Page 74 - bneMag bne_December 2020_20201201

74 I New Europe in Numbers bne December 2020
Poland GDP growth, seasonally adjusted y/y change in %
Polish economy rebounds in Q3 but recovery unlikely to hold firm
Source: GUS, IMF
Russia GDP y/y %
Polish GDP fell a seasonally adjusted 2% y/y in the third quarter after retreating 7.9% y/y in April-June, a flash estimate released by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) on November 13 showed.
The reading shows Poland’s economy recovering after the shock of the lockdown, in place throughout a considerable part of the second quarter to contain the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
Russia's GDP decline moderates to 3.6% in 3Q20
Russia's GDP declined by 3.6% year on year in 3Q20, marking a notable improvement after an 8% y/y fall in GDP seen in 2Q20.
As reported by bne IntelliNews, previously the risks associated with the second wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) have called the official economic outlook of the Ministry of Economic Development into question. Better GDP dynamics in 3Q20 are thus welcome.
The data came in line with the consensus forecast but was better than the official expectations (-3.8%), BCS Global Markets commented on November 13, estimating that in 9M20 GDP fell by 3.5% y/y after -3.4% in 2H20.
Romania’s retail sales up 3.8% y/y in Q3
Romania's retail sales index increased by 4.6% y/y in September, driven by non-food sales that keep rising by double-digit rates.
The higher real wages, still moderate unemployment and affordable interest rates pushed up the retail sales by 3.8% y/y in the third quarter of the year after a 7.3% y/y contraction in Q2.
As of September, the seasonally and workday adjusted retail sales index was still 1.9% below the pre-crisis level reached in February. However, non-food sales boasted double-digit growth in September (+11.6% y/y) and are already 4.3% above the pre-crisis level of February (in adjusted terms).
Ukrainian companies booked $3bn of losses in the first half of 2020
Corporate profits in Ukraine were doing well in 2019 and the large and medium-sized enterprises reported an exceptionally good fourth quarter, taking in UAH274bn ($9.6bn) in the last quarter to bring the total corporate profits for 2019 to UAH529bn ($18.5bn).
However, the economic shocks of 2020 killed off activity in the first quarter and sent corporates collectively into a loss of UAH118bn. There was a mild recovery in the second quarter, where companies earned UAH28bn (about $1bn), but that was almost a third of what they earned in the same period a year earlier.
Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Economy
Romania: Retail Sales Index [2015=100]
Source: IHS Markit, Istanbul Chamber of Industry
Ukraine corporate profit UAH mn (quarterly)
Source: Ukrstat
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