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“Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia's 1mn bpd [of] diesel exports have shifted beyond their traditional European market, finding new buyers in Turkey and Brazil as well as in the African continent”
Russian diesel exports had come under pressure throughout September even before the ban was put in place, due
to domestic refinery maintenance and efforts from the government to increase supply in the domestic market,
ING said in a note.
Tourism saves Southeast Europe’s economies from stagnation
Clare Nuttall in Pristina
Growth has decelerated across Emerging Europe this year, but the slowdown has been less marked along Southeast Europe’s Adriatic coast. The reason – increasingly clear as data on tourist arrivals comes in from Albania, Croatia and Montenegro – is the very strong summer 2023 tourist season.
While GDP growth did not match the steep rebound growth immediately post-pandemic, the tourism-dependent economies in the region have avoided the marked slowdowns seen in Central Europe, as tourism compensated from weaker exports.
“In the Western Balkans, the effect of weakening trade with Eurozone partners at the beginning of 2023 was partly offset by the strong performance of the tourism sector in the region’s service-based economies,” the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its latest Regional Economic Prospects report in September.
The development bank forecasts GDP in the region will grow by 2% this year, rising to 3.4% in 2024. That compares to projected growth this year of just 0.5% in Central Europe and the Baltic states.
Russia is a crucial supplier of refined products to global markets, with it exporting in the region of 1mn barrels per day (bpd) of diesel. In fact, Russia is the second-largest exporter of diesel, with just the US exporting larger volumes. “As a result, this is a key development as we head into the Northern Hemisphere winter, a period where we usually see a seasonal pick-up in demand,” ING said.
Russia has managed to avoid G7 sanctions on most of its oil exports, a development that will bolster the Kremlin's revenues as crude oil prices surge towards $100 per barrel, the Financial Times reported on September 24.
At a conference in Moscow on September 28, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said “the worst is over” for the economy after Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov reported that oil export revenues are now surging and predicted that the government will easily hit its 2% budget deficit target for this year.
Croatia's foreign tourist revenue hit €3.85bn in 1H23, up 21.4% year on year, according to the Croatian National Bank (HNB). In 2Q23 alone, revenue was €3.18bn, an 18.4% y/y increase.
Minister of Tourism and Sport Nikolina Brnjac commented: "After the record year 2022 in terms of foreign tourist revenue, in 2023 we are registering even better results. Croatia has made big progress in quality and become recognised as a desirable tourist destination also outside of the summer months.”
In the first eight months of the year, Croatia reported an 8% rise in arrivals and a 2% y/y uptick in overnight stays, the Croatian Tourist Board (HTZ) reported on September 5.
Data from the eVistor system showed a total of 16.2mn arrivals and 88.5mn overnight stays, mirroring the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. German tourists contributed the most overnight stays, with 18.8mn.
In August alone, Croatia welcomed 4.6mn arrivals and recorded 31.5mn overnight stays, with arrivals up by 1% and stays down by 2% y/y.
“Despite the present circumstances, including the impact of global inflation and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Croatia
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