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into Ukraine No. 3”, calling Moldova a “Ukraine No. 2”.
Armenia has been voicing criticism about Russia and the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty organisation (CSTO) since 2021, when Azerbaijan captured lands inside Armenia, but it became more vocal following the 2022 September attack when Azerbaijan captured a number of military positions inside Armenia, leaving hundreds dead. Armenia’s requests to Russia and CSTO for military assistance remained unanswered, making Armenia reconsider its strategic allies.
In a September 24 speech, Pashinyan stated that the “security systems” – meaning CSTO and the alliance with Russia – of which Armenia was part were not effective and that Armenia was seeking to diversify its security architecture.
Armenia has recently been more eager for Western-led initiatives and peace negotiations with Azerbaijan. Refusing a number of events with the CSTO and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), Armenia hosted a short- term military training with US troops days before Azerbaijan’s September 19 attack on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Armenia has been looking for new possible partners, among them, India and France. India and Armenia already have a number of contracts on arms supplies, while with France Armenia has just agreed to co-operate militarily, which includes delivery of weapons. Russia
is still the main supplier of weapons,
but with its war in Ukraine, the country struggled to send promised weapons to Armenia, nor has it returned the $400mn Armenia pre-paid for the weapons.
Along with security issues, Yerevan faced a test of loyalty when initiating the ratification of the Rome Statute of International Criminal Court. Armenia decided to join the court despite Russia’s warnings and threats that
the ratification could affect the two country’s relations.
The West has also become one of the leading facilitators of talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While the talks are facing a standoff over the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders keep repeating that the peace agreement between the two countries is within reach.
Pashinyan stated in Strasbourg that Armenia is ready to sign the peace treaty with Azerbaijan by the end of the year. ”
Russia plans permanent naval base in Abkhazia, raising alarm bells in Georgia
Tornike Mandaria in Tbilisi
Russia plans to establish a permanent naval base on the Black Sea coast in Abkhazia, a breakaway region of Georgia, as its fleet in Crimea faces ongoing threats from Ukraine. Moscow’s move has raised concerns and criticism from Tbilisi, which views the move as
a severe violation of its sovereignty.
Georgia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has strongly criticised Russia's actions, labeling them as "another provocative attempt" to legitimise Russia's occupation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia calls on Russia to respect its international obligations and adhere to the cease- fire agreement reached in 2008 through EU mediation.
Georgian PM Irakli Garibashvili said "this is a direct consequence of the occupation, and it's undoubtedly a continuation of that unlawful course."
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Abkhazia's leader, Aslan Bzhania, confirmed the signing of the agreement, stating that a modern missile ship had arrived as part of the deal. This naval base is expected to be located in the Ochamchire region of Abkhazia.
Bzhania also reaffirmed his backing for Abkhazia's engagement in the "Union State of Belarus and Russia", while also expressing hopes for “international recognition”.
Russia already maintains a significant military presence in Abkhazia, including the 7th military base and
a Federal Security Service border department. The existing Russian military base in Gali, along with others in nearby villages, has been a source of ongoing concern for Georgia.
In 2008, Russia recognized Abkhazia as an "independent republic" following the Russian-Georgian war, which began in
the Tskhinvali region (South Ossetia). Russia also recognised South Ossetia as an independent entity. Most of the international community, however, continues to recognize Abkhazia as part of Georgia, excluding a handful
of countries like Venezuela, Nicaragua, Nauru, and Syria.
Reports of Russia's intention to establish a base in Ochamchire first surfaced
in 2009, raising concerns among
Nato members. This move is seen as
a potentially significant part of Russia's efforts to diversify its military presence beyond Sevastopol in Crimea, which has been a contentious issue since Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine
in 2014.
There have been recent reports that Russia is withdrawing most of its Black Sea fleet from its primary base in annexed Crimea due to Ukraine's military actions there.