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Journal that the US would "very likely" start enforcement on
Western companies failing to comply with the rules.
"My guess is that over the next three to six months, you'll see tougher enforcement," Harris told S&P Global. "You'll start to see at least a handful of regulatory enforcement actions for outright fraud."
The EU is currently debating a twelfth sanctions package that will focus on better enforcing existing sanctions rather than on imposing new ones, with the exception of possibly sanctioning Russia’s diamond trade for the first time.
However, some analysts have said that the US is nervous about enforcing the oil price sanctions too vigorously for
COMMENT
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fear of constraining supplies of crude too much and pushing the price of oil even higher – especially ahead of the US presidential elections next year. Moreover, many players have called for the cap to be reduced from $60 to $30, which again is largely currently being ignored for the same reasons.
Aside from preventing Western firms from violating the price cap, coalition members also need to constrain the grey fleet's growth to limit Russian oil exports, according to some analysts.
"The price cap has been unenforced to date," said Jim Burkhard, head of research for oil markets at S&P Global. "We do not expect meaningful enforcement to take place if the war in Israel is seen as pushing oil prices higher."
The new Iran – Azerbaijan transit route reflects shifting geopolitical realities
Fuad Shahbazov
Azerbaijan and Iran laid the foundation on October
6 for a transit route connecting western Azerbaijan
to its exclave of Nakhchivan through Iran. The road bridge is being built in line with the memorandum of mutual understanding between the governments of Azerbaijan and Iran on developing new transport links. According to the Azerbaijani media, the bridge will span the Aras River to connect to the Iranian province of Eastern Azerbaijan.
The new transit project announcement came amid the ongoing normalisation of ties between Azerbaijan and Iran after months of harsh diplomatic confrontation. From the Iranian perspective, there are several reasons behind the shift in diplomatic relations, but the most important is the changed regional balance of power in the South Caucasus following the war in 2020 between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Among the broader impacts of the war were the declining influence of Iran and the strengthening axis of Baku-Ankara and Baku-Tel Aviv in the region.
The turning point was the Azerbaijani government's ambitious plans to establish a land route with Turkey from Nakhchivan through Armenia's Syunik province shortly after the Russia-brokered ceasefire agreement was signed between Baku and Yerevan in November 2020. Given the bilateral strategic partnership between the two countries, Azerbaijan has long sought to be linked directly to Turkey via a land route. However, such plans provoked an immediate
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reaction from Iran, the strategic partner of Armenia, accusing Azerbaijan and Turkey of attempting to redraw the borders in the South Caucasus.
The proposed corridor project comprises transit networks, such as highways, bridges, tunnels and railway connections. The initial route was supposed to run through Armenia's Syunik province, which triggered fears in Yerevan about Azerbaijan's possible "invasion of Syunik" and became
The new transit route between Azerbaijan and Iran means the Zangezur Corridor project will shortly be implemented without Armenia's Syunik province. / bne IntelliNews