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total income. Machinery and equipment manufacturers also have notable exposure, with 7.4% of their exports destined for the US, and exports making up about 55% of the sector’s revenue.
Conversely, sectors such as tobacco products, apparel, leather goods, paper, pharmaceuticals, motor vehicles and oil refining exhibit little to no reliance on the US market.
Although Poland’s overall vulnerability to potential US trade restrictions is limited, indirect effects could emerge from a broader economic slowdown in Western Europe. Such a scenario would amplify risks for the Polish economy, adding to the challenges posed by global trade uncertainties.
4.0 Real Economy
4.1 Retail
Poland’s retail industry, while set for another year of growth, will be navigating yet another difficult year in 2025. The primary issue is rising business costs, such as an 8.5% increase in the minimum wage that kicked in from January (with another one coming in July), and uncertainty stemming from inflation, consumer sentiment weakened by geopolitical anxieties, and looming legal regulations.
Despite challenges, the retail market was worth PLN435bn in 2024, representing a 5.4% increase versus 2023. Growth in 2025 is expected to maintain a similar pace of around 5%.
On the consumers’ side, Poles are likely to continue being worried by the high cost of living despite real wages expected to keep growing in 2025. Another concern is geopolitical instability, the outcome (if any) of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the atmosphere of fear that Poland could become Moscow’s next target.
Poland’s consumer confidence index edged up 0.4 points to -16.7 in December, the country’s statistical office GUS said in December. The modest improvement only placed the index at its second-lowest point in the past year.
On the positive side, the expected interest rate cut, or cuts, by the National Bank of Poland later this year, could offer some relief to consumers.
13 Poland Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com