Page 18 - bne IntelliNews Poland Outlook 2025

The second, more ambitious scenario, envisions virtually ending coal as a source of electricity in 2040, when only 4 TWh of electricity would be generated from this fossil fuel, compared with 96 TWh projected in 2025. Coal would thus have been pushed out by nuclear power and renewables, the latter supported by varying forms of energy storage.
The overall cost of Poland’s energy transformation in the ambitious scenario is estimated at nearly PLN800bn by 2030. There are risks evident to this scenario already in 2025 (as they have been for years), the industry warns, however, pointing to structural bottlenecks like red tape or underinvested transmission and distribution grids.
Alongside long-term strategic plans, ultimately aiming to reduce the carbon intensity of the Polish economy, there are day-to-day politics concentrating on reducing the cost of electricity for households and so-called vulnerable users like hospitals or schools.
In that vein, the Tusk government capped electricity prices for those users until the end of September. Some experts warn that each successive price freeze has voters thinking that prices will never rise again, and any price increase will be the responsibility of the government, which – wary of the political costs – might just make it a permanent policy.
7.0 Markets Outlook
7.1 Stocks
The total value of equity turnover on the Warsaw Stock Exchange's main market reached a record PLN25.4bn (€6bn), marking an increase of 5.4% compared to the previous year.
The Warsaw Stock Exchange might not boom in 2025 but still investors should be fairly confident of decent returns. According to estimates, WIG-listed companies achieved around PLN80bn in profits in 2024, while next year the figure could be as high as PLN 98bn. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the WIG index was just under 10 in late 2024 but – taking next year’s profits into account – it is expected to drop to around 8 in 2025, underscoring how undervalued Polish stocks are.
The main factor currently dampening investor sentiment toward Polish stocks appears to be the situation in Ukraine. A potential correction in Western markets would not leave the local stock market unaffected, which also seems to be limiting greater demand for Polish securities.
Still, analysts and portfolio managers tend to expect the WIG to grow by around 10%-15% at the end of 2025, driven by listed companies’
18 Poland Outlook 2025 www.intellinews.com