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bne April 2019 Eurasia I 53
The deadlock between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh has been going on for decades
from both sides. The number of casual- ties and cease-fire violations have also significantly decreased. In December, Aliyev replaced regular troops deployed on two segments of the border with Armenia with border guard person- nel. While the change is more symbolic than substantive, given that Azerbaijani border forces would be no less heavily armed or equipped compared to those from the regular army, the decision
has been nonetheless interpreted by some analysts as a constructive step. Meanwhile, those displaced regular troops were simply redeployed to an area near the volatile Line of Contact.
These developments were met with widespread approval by the interna- tional community. In January, UN Secretary-General spokesman Stephane Dujarric applauded the thaw between the long-time combatants. “The Secre- tary-General appreciates the continued commitment of the sides to finding a negotiated and peaceful solution to
the long-standing Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and particularly welcomed the Ministers’ agreement on the need to take concrete measures to prepare the populations for peace.” The EU also welcomed the thaw in the peace process and expressed its full support for the mediation efforts of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs.
However, there is a drastic mismatch between rising international expecta- tions and the ground-level realities
in and around the Karabakh conflict. Despite the interlude of good feelings, the positions and strategic interests of the parties to the conflict remain so far
Imitation Game – the theatre and risks of the Karabakh peace process bne IntelliNews
COMMENT:
After the democratic revolution
in Armenia and the peaceful transition of power to the current government of Nikol Pashinian, regional experts and international observers have expressed cautious optimism about the prospects for progress in Karabakh peace talks. While many of the signs are encouraging, and represent a welcome change from the region’s more typical foreboding, the underlying dynamics of the conflict remain unchanged – along with the extended spectre of war.
For a conflict long teetering on the edge of conflagration, the newfound sense of positive expectation in Karabakh is striking. Understandably so, perhaps, following an informal meeting between Pashinian and President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev in late September 2018
on the margins of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit in Dushanbe.
The brief encounter between the two leaders produced an unexpected agree-
ment to reduce tensions and establish direct lines of communications – a rare example of seemingly tangible progress in the seemingly intractable conflict. These informal negotiations were fol- lowed by two official meetings orga- nized by the OSCE Minsk Group (MG) in December 2018 and January 2019, where the MG co-chairs appealed to both sides to take “concrete measures to prepare the populations for peace.” Pashinian and Aliyev had another unof-
“For a conflict long teetering on the edge of conflagration, the newfound sense of positive expectation in Karabakh is striking”
ficial conversation on the side-lines of the Davos World Economic Forum in January 2019 and discussed steps for advancement of peace talks.
All these meetings were accompanied by a noticeable softening of official rhetoric
apart that the war continues to be the likeliest outcome. To wit, the most basic preconditions for a lasting settlement continue to be strategic nonstarters. The Madrid Principles, which in some form or another have been the basis
of the negotiation process for the last
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