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Forest in Kharkiv Oblast, eastern Ukraine, after Russian shelling. / State Emergency Service of Ukraine.
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Forest fires drive up Ukraine war emissions Ros Davidson
The war in Ukraine has generated nearly 230mn tonnes of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions since Russia's full-scale invasion began, with forest fires significantly contributing to the increase, according to an analysis published on the third anniversary of the conflict.
The study, conducted by the Initiative on Greenhouse
Gas Accounting of War, found that in the past year alone emissions linked to the war had reached 55mn tonnes. Researchers attributed much of this increase to widespread fires caused mostly by warfare, exacerbated by extreme heat and dry conditions.
"What stands out in the third year is that we've seen landscape fires, particularly forest fires, escalating," said Lennard de Klerk, lead researcher at the non-profit group, in an interview with The Guardian. "They are double compared to the average of the previous two years and 20-25 times more than in peacetime."
Wildfires, particularly in forested eastern Ukraine, where much of the fighting is concentrated, burned through 92,100
hectares (227,700 acres) of land in 2024, more than twice
the annual average of the preceding two years. This led to 16.9mn tonnes of CO2e in emissions over the past year alone, researchers said.
Fires have been difficult to control due to the conflict. "Campfires made by soldiers, ignitions from drones and ammunition, combined with no possibility of deploying firefighters, mean small fires escalate into larger, uncontrollable blazes," de Klerk said to Climate Home News.
Impact of warfare and reconstruction
The largest contributor to emissions remains direct warfare, accounting for 82.1mn tonnes of CO2e, or 36% of the total since 2022. This includes emissions from tanks, warplanes, explosions and the construction of fortifications. Reconstruction, particularly rebuilding homes, hospitals, roads and other infrastructure, accounted for 62.2mn tonnes of CO2e (27%).
"In the first year, reconstruction caused the highest emissions due to large-scale destruction in the early months," de Klerk
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