Page 64 - bne_March 2025_20250304

64 I New Europe in Numbers bne March 2025
CEE inflation: Czechia, Hungary, Poland
Upside inflation risks build across CEE
Inflationary pressures across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) are intensifying, with higher-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) data prompting a shift in monetary policy expectations across the region, Nicholas Farr, an emerging Europe economist with Capital Economics said in a note on February 12.
“We have revised up our interest rate forecast in Hungary in response and no longer expect any monetary easing there in 2025. In Poland and Romania, we maintain our above consensus interest rate views,” said Farr.
Romania’s retail sales leap by 8.6% y/y in 2024, but outlook deteriorates
Retail sales in Romania surged by 8.6% y/y in 2024 in volume terms, driven by the double-digit (+14.8% y/y) rise in non-food sales according to data published by the statistics office INS.
The private consumption was driven up by the 7.6% y/y rise in the real net wage and the unusually sharp rise in the volume of “new consumption loans”: +73% y/y to RON47.0bn (€9.5bnn) in 2024, counting only local currency denominated lending. The “new consumption loans”, although including
a significant volume of refinancing, account for a significant volume in relative terms: roughly 1.5 months of net wages earned by the 5.75mn employees in the country.
Croatia records highest inflation in eurozone as shopping boycott gains momentum
Croatia posted the highest inflation rate in the eurozone in January, with consumer prices rising 5% year-on-year, as discontent over soaring costs fuels a growing shopping boycott across the Balkans.
Data from Eurostat showed Croatia’s inflation, measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), accelerating for the fourth consecutive month, following rates of 2.2% in October, 2.8% in November and 3.4% in December 2024.
Total Russian car sales up by more than half in 2024
The sale of new passenger cars in Russia was up by 56% in 2024 and grew by another 9% y/y in January 2025,
the Association of European Business’s Automobile Manufacturers Committee (AEB) reported on February 5.
The total sales of new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in 2024 amounted to 1,471,568 units excluding alternative supply channels, which is 56% higher than the result of 2023.
Source: National central banks
Romania: Retail Sales Index [2021=100; seasonally, workday adjusted]
Source: bne IntelliNews
Annual inflation (estimate) in January 2025
Source: Eurostat
Russian car sales (units per period)
Source: AEB
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