Page 23 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine May 2024

bne May 2024 Companies & Markets I 23
Unlike solar and wind energy, which depend on natural conditions, nuclear plants allow for constant and reliable hydrogen production, making the process more stable and predictable regardless of the season, both analysts emphasise. Baltic eyes are set on SMRs. When stacked up against large nuclear power plants, SMRs are thought to have several advantages: they require a relatively small area of land, meaning their area requirement can be measured in the dozens of hectares, not in the hundreds of hectares.
Compared with existing reactors, SMR designs are simpler, and, when it comes to the most important things, the security, they often relies on passive systems. This means that in such cases, no human intervention or external power sources are required to turn off the systems, as passive systems rely on physical phenomena such as convection and gravity.
Estonia shifts away from shale oil
Estonia is so far the only state to specify the capacity of the mooted plant – ca 400 MVA (megavolt amperes), equivalent to 400 MW.
According to the report unveiled by Estonia’s national nuclear energy working group last year, it would take 11 years to get it online after the decision to build it has been made.
“The decision has to be made by 2030, but it is not on the current Riigikogu [parliament] agenda,” a source told bne IntelliNews.
The working group’s 164-page report states, among other things, that a SMR should be constructed in a region with scarcer, below average earning population, located further afield from Tallinn, such as, for example, in Varbla, Loksa, Kunda and Toila regions. Any nuclear power plant must be located near a large water source such as the Baltic Sea.
Liis Eiser, Communication Project Manager at Elering, Estonia’s transmission system operator, told bne IntelliNews that “there is a public debate about nuclear power plants, but no decision has been made by government or potential investors”.
Estonia has set a goal of 100 per cent renewable energy sources for electricity generation by 2030.
She says a prognosis shows that, in 2030, there should be about 6,000 MW of energy production, of which around 3,000 MW would be wind and around 2,000 MW would be sun (and 1,000+ MW of on-demand capacities such as nuclear energy).
However, renewable energy generation can be unpredictable, particularly at 59 degrees North. Electricity storage facilities would be needed, to ensure the stability of supply and of prices, the Estonian Ministry of Climate said recently. Likewise, nuclear power would also act as a market stabiliser when renewable power generation was insufficient.
Estonia has also another good reason to go nuclear – the shale oil
production it has relied for years is about to be phased out because of environmental concerns, although the country ramped up the excavation volume in the wake of the war in Ukraine.
Lithuania needs to fill power gap
Meantime, in Lithuania, there has been a buzz about nuclear energy since March after the country's updated National Energy Independence Strategy was revealed by the energy ministry. It foresees more electricity production, more consumption, more hydrogen, as well as a revival of nuclear energy through the development of SMRs.
Energy Minister Dainius Kreivys claims the so-called fourth- generation reactors are safer than those built in the past, and nuclear energy would reduce the burden on industry and consumers of maintaining the energy system.
Lithuania shut down its Soviet-type Ignalina nuclear power plant at the end of 2009, giving in to the pressure of the European Union, which maintained it was unsafe to use. Thus, Lithuania went from being a major power exporter to a power importer.
“We will need to make a decision after assessing the development of this technology. If we want to have a reactor around 2040, we will have to make a decision in around 2028- 2030...We will see very clear costs and all the pros and cons, but this decision is a very important part of our strategy so that we can start following those technologies,” Kreivys told BNS, a Lithuanian newswire, adding that that future nuclear reactors in Lithuania would not be built by the state, but by privately-owned businesses.
Under the ministry's scenario, onshore wind farms (28.1 TWh), offshore wind farms (18.8 TWh), nuclear reactors (11.2 TWh), and solar power plants (9.5 TWh) are expected to generate the most electricity in 2050.
Meanwhile, hydrogen (35.5 TWh) and the rest of industry (12.6 TWh) and transport (6.3 TWh) are expected to be the largest consumers of electricity in 2050.
Lithuanian TSO Litgrid data shows that Lithuania produced almost 5.7 TWh of electricity last year and consumed 11.1 TWh.
“Renewable resources alone will not be enough to meet Lithuania's growing electricity consumption and its goals in the future, so mulling a nuclear power plant is logical,” Jankauskas says.
Both President Gitanas Nauseda and Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte said following the revelation of the updated energy strategy that next-generation nuclear technology should be considered as an option.
According to Kreivys, the import of energy resources and increased electricity production remain Lithuania's key energy challenges.
www.bne.eu