Page 62 - bne IntelliNews monthly magazine May 2024

62 I New Europe in Numbers bne May 2024
Russia's March current account surplus every year from 2007 to 2024, ($bn)
Source: CBR
Hungary industrial production y/y
Russia’s $13.4bn current account surplus in March second highest since 2007
Russia posted a $13.4bn current account surplus in March, more than double February’s $5.5bn and the second highest level for a March since 2007.
“Russia's March 2024 Russia’s current account surplus is the second highest ever after March 2022,” Robin Brooks, the former chief economist with the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in a tweet. “Putin has cash pouring in, even as Ukraine is on the defensive. The EU allowed this to happen. It looked the other way as Greek shipping oligarchs sold oil tankers to Russia's shadow fleet. A scandal.”
Automotive sector output in Hungary edges up 1.6% y/y in February
The output of the automotive industry, accounting for 28% of the manufacturing sector, edged up 1.6% year-on-year in February, rising after a three-month decline, the Central Statistics Office (KSH) said.
KSH confirmed that headline industrial output rose 1.8% in February, increasing for the first month in about a year. February output rose 1.4% when adjusted for the number of workdays. In a month-on-month comparison, output increased a seasonally- and workday-adjusted 3.5%.
CEE falling inflation trend comes to an end
After spiking to 20-year highs thanks to the pandemic and Europe’s Russian induced energy crisis, inflation rates across the EU have tumbled in recent months. That trend has run out of steam and central banks are expected to start hiking rates again soon, Capital Economics said in a note on April 11.
“While inflation fell further across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in March, we think that the recent run of good CPI news is largely over. We expect inflation to rise back above central banks’ target ranges in Hungary and Poland by end-2024 (to near 5%), which will limit scope for interest rate cuts.
Summer starts as EU gas tanks start to fill again
Winter is over, as the EU gas tanks switch from withdrawals to filling mode again in preparation for next winter. Injection into the gas tanks started on April 1, a week earlier than in 2023 and started at an all-time high record level of 59.3% full.
Russian gas pipe imports and gas for power into the EU is on a downward trend, falling by 9% in the first quarter this year vs the first quarter of last year, but given the warm weather as heatwaves are already affecting all of Europe, storage this year should fill fast.
Source: Hungary state statistics agency
CEE inflation y/y %
Source: bne IntelliNews
European gas storage % full
Source: GIE AGSI
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