Page 156 - RusRPTJun24

while other reports suggested that the salary race between Russian employers will intensify given the persistently tight labour market and staff shortages. Labour shortages are now reported in such segments as IT, delivery personnel, and construction workers.
● Prices & demand
Chinese consumption of gasoline surpassed pre-coved levels three years ago and continues to grow. Despite lower-than-expected economic growth in the first quarter of 2024, gasoline consumption was at a record high.
The growth in demand for gasoline in China is supposed to be declining rapidly with the increased penetration of electric vehicles. There are about 21mn electric vehicles on Chinese roads today. Assuming all of them are replaced gasoline cars, the replacement is less than 500,000 b/d of gasoline demand.
At the same time, the number of ICE vehicles increased by more than 55mn during the same period. When will electric vehicles cause demand for gasoline to decline? Many, including Chinese oil majors, think it will happen soon, but it hasn’t happened yet. Experts don’t believe it will happen in 2025 either.
● Transport & exports
The Russian Federation’s oil exports fell by 6.4% to a five-month low.
Amid drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and planned production cuts, Russia exported a total of 7.3 million barrels per day last month, down 6.4% from March, according to the IEA.
Moscow suspends gasoline export ban for a month:Russia’s government is temporarily lifting its export ban on gasoline, effective between May 20 and June 30, 2024. Officials say the measure is necessary to desaturate Russia’s automotive fuel market, prevent slowdowns at refineries, and free up ports by shipping away undelivered fuel that’s been taking up space. Despite increased drone attacks by Ukraine against Russian oil refineries in 2024, Russia has managed swift repairs and already restartedproduction at key facilities, reports Reuters. Russia imposed its gasoline export ban on March 1, ostensibly for six months, saying the measure was needed to “maintain a stable situation” amid high demand.
OPEC+ crude production fell 210,000 b/d month on month to 41.04mn b/d in April, the Platts OPEC+ survey by S&P Global Commodity Insights found, as Russia began to implement a deeper output cut amid a string of Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. However, the decrease is unlikely to be enough to allay tensions over compliance, with Russia missing its target, and Iraq and Kazakhstan continuing to produce significantly above their quotas. OPEC+ production is at its lowest since August, not including Angola, which quit the group in December. OPEC produced 26.63mn b/d in April, down 30,000 b/d from March volumes. Its non-OPEC allies led by Russia added 14.41mn b/d –
156 RUSSIA Country Report June 2024 www.intellinews.com