Page 27 - RusRPTJun24

2.10 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries are working
Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries are doing what oil sanctions have failed to achieve: reducing the Kremlin’s income from oil production, limiting its supply of fuel for the army, pushing up domestic prices, but without affecting the international markets for oil. Despite US fears, the effect of the attacks will be to drive international oil prices down, not up.
Since the drone war started earlier this year, new long distance
drones have struck at least 20 targets deep in Russian territory causing fires and threatening to put refineries out of action for weeks as
increasingly difficult to make repairs are carried out.
The attacks do not destroy refineries. Thanks to the legacy of the Cold War, most refineries were built to withstand attack and have air defences, as bne
IntelliNews reported in an article looking at how much damage Ukraine’s drone attacks on oil refineries can do.
Nevertheless, Russia’s oil products production has fallen by an estimated 14% between January and March as a result, causing shortages for the civilian population, if not for industry and the military; Russia has significant over production capacity to enable exports and only an estimated 40% of its refineries are in range. But the attacks have already caused the domestic prices for oil and diesel to surge.
27 RUSSIA Country Report June 2024 www.intellinews.com