Page 15 - Iran OUTLOOK 2025

which could exacerbate existing challenges.
The PMI for Iran’s economy reached 51.3 during the eighth month of the current Persian calendar year (October 22-November 20), showing a 1-point or 1.91% decrease from 52.3 the previous month.
The Iranian local industries’ PMI hit 52.2 during the month, marking a 5.2-point or 9.05% fall from 57.4 for the month before.
The PMI for Iran's economy hit 49.8 based on the seasonally adjusted figures during the month (up 1.2-point or 2.39% month on month), while Iran's local industries PMI amounted to 51.8 during the mentioned month (down 4.2 points or 7.5% m/m).
The PMI serves as an important indicator for assessing economic trends in both manufacturing and services. A reading above 50 points to expansion, whereas a reading below 50 indicates contraction. When the score is exactly 50, it reflects no change in economic activity. The PMI provides valuable insights into a country’s financial trends and the general state of business conditions.
• 6.2 Agriculture
In 2024, Iran's agricultural sector demonstrated resilience and growth potential, with an estimated value of $33.10bn. Looking ahead, the sector is projected to expand to $35.30bn by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.80%. This growth trajectory underscores the sector's vital role in Iran's economic diversification efforts.
The sector's significance extends beyond its economic contribution, employing approximately 15% of Iran's workforce. This substantial employment share highlights agriculture's crucial role in supporting livelihoods across the country, particularly in rural areas.
Grain production emerged as a key component of agricultural output, with total production forecast at 20.1mn tonnes in 2024. Within this, wheat production was expected to reach 13.5mn tonnes for the 2023-2024 crop year. These production levels reflect Iran's ongoing efforts to maintain food security through domestic cultivation.
The sector's contribution to external trade was evident in the early months of the Iranian calendar year (March 21 to May 20, 2024), with agricultural products comprising 6.66% of total export volume and 8.53% of export value. These figures demonstrate the sector's role in
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