Page 9 - Iran OUTLOOK 2025

workforce amid sustained sanctions and economic challenges.
Iran's economic distress has deepened, with its Misery Index reaching an unprecedented 60.4%, more than doubling since US sanctions were reimposed in 2018, according to new government data.
The index, which combines unemployment and inflation rates to measure economic hardship, rose 1.2 percentage points in the first quarter, the Iranian Statistics Centre reported. Some provinces face even grimmer conditions, with Lorestan approaching 70%.
The stark increase from 38.9% in 2018, when then-President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal and renewed sanctions, highlights the severe impact on Iran's economy.
Lorestan Province recorded one of the country's highest inflation rates at 57.1% in June, coupled with 12.4% unemployment – the second-highest nationally. Similar distress was seen in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari provinces, both registering index readings above 60%.
Sistan-Baluchistan Province, with Iran's highest unemployment at 12.8%, also showed significant economic strain.
The deteriorating conditions have sparked public protests over living standards, wage delays and inadequate welfare support as citizens demand government action to address the crisis.
The record-high misery index underscores how US sanctions over Iran's nuclear programme have devastated the country's economy and living standards since their reintroduction in 2018.
3.0 External Environment
The relationship between Iran and Israel reached a dangerous new phase in 2024, culminating in Iran's unprecedented direct assault on Israeli territory. On 13 April, Tehran launched its first-ever direct strike against Israel, sending more than 300 missiles and drones across the region. The attack came in response to an Israeli airstrike that had destroyed Iran's consulate in Damascus nearly two weeks earlier, killing several high-ranking Iranian military commanders.
Israel's air defences, bolstered by support from the US, Britain, France and Jordan, managed to intercept most of the incoming weapons. The
9 IRAN OUTLOOK 2025 www.intellinews.com