Page 162 - RusRPTApr21

emerge.
Magnit’s shares have lost 5% YTD vs. the 7% gain of the MOEX Index. They now trade on 2021F EV/EBITDA and P/E of 6.0x and 11.8x, respectively. The stock also offers a 10% dividend yield in our 12-month forecast, which is the leading profile in our consumer universe and an appealing investment case, in our view.
M.Video posted 2H20 IFRS and held a conference call. The results were mostly in line with expectations. Despite lower gross margin, adj. NI increased
by 9.3% y/y
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· ·
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in 2020, which will be used for dividends calculation.
Revenue increased 19.7% y/y (+1.8% vs BCSe)
EBITDA increased 3.3% y/y under IFRS 16 (+5% vs BCSe) due to decreased gross profit given a higher share of spot purchases, which MVID had to incur to maintain superior sales growth rates, as well as sufficient product range and inventory levels. As a result, EBITDA margin contracted to 10.6%
Net income declined 29% y/y under IFRS 16 (-3% vs BCSe) on a loss related to Goods.ru’s operations. Net margin was c2%
Adj. Net profit under IAS 17 increased 9.3% y/y to Rb12.2bn in 2020 compared to Rb11.2bn in 2019. The company may pay out adjusted net income as dividends, according to the new dividend policy, which suggests an allocation of no less than 100% of net profit, excluding the share of profit (loss) of associates and joint ventures under IAS 17, for semi-annual dividend payments. Thus, a dividend of Rb38/s can be recommended in the M-T
Net debt declined by Rb4.2bn to Rb40.5bn as of 31 December, 2020. Net debt / adj. EBITDA was 1.42х, down 0.25x compared to 31 December, 2019
X5 Retail Group has released its 4Q20 IFRS numbers, which we see as modest, but already anticipated by the market.
The EBITDA margin reached 6.2% (-180bp q/q), because of price investments and one-off extra payments to retail personnel for the strong FY20 performance. In absolute terms, EBITDA (RUB32.6bn) came 5-9% below the consensus and our estimates. Net income was materially below our forecasts, affected by growing tax expenses (+37% y/y), due to the payment of interim dividends in December 2020.
In our view, these results are the bottom of the year, and we expect them to recover in 1Q21. The BoD has also proposed dividends of RUB110.49/GDR (4% yield), with an ex-date of 27 May. This brings the total payment for 2020 to RUB184.13/GDR, with an annualised 7% yield, in line with our model. We reiterate our 12-mo TP of $42 and Buy recommendation (23% ETR).
162 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com