Page 175 - RusRPTApr21

RUB 5bn of yearly maintenance and RUB 7.4bn average DPM2 capex over the period. Even 1GW of additional wind capacity would push Unipro’s ND/E above 3.5x level at peak, limiting the company’s ability to maintain its dividend commitments. Similar choices for Enel Russia were the straw that broke the camel's back. We incorporate our latest assumptions on DPM2 and other capex, production, prices, etc into our model. We thus update our 12-month Target Price to RUB 3.30, which implies a 28% ETR and a Buy.
The Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Finnish power producer Fortum plan to invest in construction of Russia’s largest solar power plant in the republic of Kalmykia, the fund said in a statement on Monday. “The RDIF and Fortum, the leading power company in North Europe and the leader in renewable power generation in Russia, will invest in construction of a solar power plant with a capacity of 116 megawatts (MW) in the republic of Kalmykia. The plant will become the largest solar power generation facility on the territory of Russia,” the RDIF said. The fund and Fortum will create a joint venture, which will unite wind power plants in the Ulyanovsk and Rostov regions with a combined capacity of 350 MW. The first stage of the solar power plant with a capacity of 78 MW will start supplies to the wholesale power and capacity market in October–December 2021. The plant will reach its full capacity in July–December 2022.
Mosenergo saw its top line increase 4.3% y/y in 4Q20 to RUB58.8bn despite electricity generation declining 4.9% y/y to 15.6mn MWh, while liberalized electricity prices in the European part of Russia fell 2.3% y/y during the quarter. The key reason for the company’s increased revenue was heat output rising 9.3% y/y to 28mn Gcal. EBITDA reached RUB9.2bn vs. the negative EBITDA of RUB1.6bn reported in 4Q19, as MSNG recognized a RUB8bn PPE impairment in 4Q19. Adjusted EBITDA rose 3.2% to RUB11.6bn and net income reached RUB6.2bn in 4Q20 vs. net loss of RUB3bn in 4Q19. The company’s FY20 bottom line reached RUB8bn, implying DPS of RUB0.152/share and a dividend yield of 7% (assuming a payout ratio of 75% of IFRS NI).
Rosseti South saw revenue increase 17.3% y/y to RUB12.4bn in 4Q20 due to electricity distribution revenue rising 8.8% y/y to RUB10.2bn and electricity resale revenue quintupling to RUB1.3bn. COGS fell 7.9% y/y to RUB11.3bn, while cash operating costs were down 16.1% y/y for the quarter. Adjusted negative EBITDA was RUB0.4bn vs. negative EBITDA of RUB4.6bn in 4Q19. Net financial expenses dropped 59.3% y/y to RUB0.4bn and D&A rose 5.1% y/y to RUB0.6bn, while other non-cash expenses reached RUB0.1bn vs. RUB1bn in 4Q19. As a result, the company’s net loss dropped from RUB4.3bn in 4Q19 to RUB1.3bn in 4Q20. The results were almost in line with our expectations on the top line for 2020, while EBITDA and the bottom line came in above our estimates. We do not expect a 2020 dividend from MRKY.
175 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com