Page 186 - RusRPTApr21

380mn of Nornickel dividends, came almost 6x above our estimates, driven up by inventories and a payables release (USD 290mn combined release for 2H20). As a result, net debt was 6% below our expectations, reaching USD 5.6bn.
2021 capex grows. 2021F capex guidance of USD 1.0-1.1bn is 13% above our forecast and 11% above consensus, as the company raised maintenance capex and streamlined capex into the Taishet aluminium smelter. Longer term, the company is considering increased capex for the modernisation of alumina smelters (no final decision taken).
No dividends for 2020, but leverage comfortable. Rusal did not declare any final dividends for FY20, in line with previous comments, noting that YE20 net debt/covenant EBITDA of 2.2x is a comfortable level for the company. We expect a further decline in 1H21, which might increase that probability of dividends.
12-mo TP raised on increased aluminium price forecasts. The spot aluminium price of USD 2,230/t beats our expectations, and we increase our 2021F price forecasts accordingly. We forecast the price to decline slightly in 2022F; however, greater cash generation in 2H20 and 2021F results in a 17% increase in our 12-mo TP to HKD 6.80 (Figure 2).
9.2.12 Transport corporate news
The net profit of Russia’s largest private container operator TransContainer increased by 7.7% on the year to 12.659 billion rubles in 2020, as calculated under International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), the company said in a report on Friday. Revenue went up 20.1% to 103.497 billion rubles, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) gained 13.3% to 22.645 billion rubles. The EBITDA margin from adjusted revenue rose to 55.5% from 52.7%, and the net debt to EBITDA ratio amounted to 2.4x. Russia’s market of container transportation by railroads increased by 16.3% in 2020 to 5.8 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). The container traffic under control of TransContainer rose by 17.3% to 2.405 million TEUs.
Global Ports reported its 2H20 IFRS results on March 5. The EBITDA number was bang in line with our estimate, Sberbank CIB said in a note.
Revenues rose 11% y/y to $200mn, mainly thanks to a significant increase in transportation services provided by subsidiary VSC in 2H20. As a reminder, Global Ports started consolidating VSC in 2H19. We consider this business to be EBITDA-neutral and more of an additional service (railroad transportation) aimed at offering a more attractive client proposition.
186 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com