Page 38 - RusRPTApr21

3.0 Macro Economy 3.1 Macroeconomic overview
Russia is on course to grow by about 3% this year after a relatively mild contraction last year.
Although the number of calendar days was fewer in February than in 2020 for the second month in a row, the decline in recovery on the production side remained strong, while the recovery momentum in the consumer space could slow down due to rising inflation and the slow recovery in consumer incomes.
Overall, the data for 2M21 point to a GDP decline of 2.8% y/y, as per estimates by the Ministry of Economic Development. Producers showed signs of acceleration, while consumer data were better than expected vs. consensus. Going forward, the indicators will improve further in 2Q21 as the epidemiological situation improves, mass vaccinations continue and restrictions are lifted.
Analysts anticipate the recovery momentum to slow down by 2H22, and we
38 RUSSIA Country Report April 2021 www.intellinews.com